Milan vs Cagliari: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 24.05.2026
One of the matches of Serie A’s 38th round will take place on Sunday at San Siro in Milan, where Milan will host Cagliari. Here’s our prediction for this showdown: the hosts are still battling for a top-four finish, while the Sardinians have shaken off the pressure of survival and can now play with more freedom.
Milan
Milan approach the final round in a state of controlled tension: their 2-1 win over Genoa put them back in the driver’s seat for a top-four finish, but questions remain about the quality of their play. In recent weeks, the Rossoneri have too often been bogged down in cautious football, and home games at San Siro no longer carry the intimidating psychological weight that used to break opponents.
Massimiliano Allegri will once again rely on balance, compactness between the lines, and careful tempo control. With Samuele Ricci and Santiago Giménez absent, Rafael Leão’s role becomes even more crucial: his bursts against Cagliari have traditionally caused problems, and this current Milan side desperately needs a player capable of unlocking a tight contest with a single acceleration.
Cagliari
Cagliari travel to Milan free from relegation anxiety: their 2-1 victory over Torino finally secured their Serie A status. This is a major psychological release after a grueling season, in which promising spells were too often interrupted by slumps and a loss of control over the game’s rhythm.
However, away football remains a weak point for the Sardinians. Pisacane’s side rarely look confident on the road, and against teams who dominate possession and don’t open up unnecessarily, Cagliari are forced to survive on isolated moments — primarily through quick transitions involving Sebastiano Esposito.
Probable lineups
- Milan: Maignan, Pavlovic, Gabbia, Tomori, Ricci, Rabiot, Fofana, Bartezaghi, Saelemaekers, Leão, Nkunku.
- Cagliari: Caprile, Pedro, Mina, Dossena, Gaetano, Ndari Adopo, Folorunsho, Palestra, Esposito, Obert, Mendy.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Both teams have scored in five of the last six meetings between Milan and Cagliari.
- At least three goals were scored in total in four of the last six head-to-head matches.
- Milan have not lost a Serie A match this season when scoring first.
- Cagliari have taken at least 3 corners in 12 of their last 13 Serie A visits to Milan.
- Milan have scored at least 2 goals in 11 of their last 14 home Serie A matches against Cagliari.
- At least 3 yellow cards have been shown in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head matches at Milan’s stadium in Serie A.
Prediction
Milan might not look flawless at the finish line, but Allegri’s side have a crucial edge — structure and a clear understanding of how to handle these tense matches without unnecessary risk. For the hosts, this isn’t just the final round, but a true maturity test in the Champions League race, and a scenario of patient wing-based pressure seems the most logical. Cagliari can play with more freedom after securing safety, but their away struggles and reliance on rare quick attacks make this assignment a tall order. If Milan score first, they should be able to calmly steer the match to the desired result.
