Can Lecce take advantage of Monza’s injury problems? Lecce vs Monza prediction - 13.09.2026
Lecce and Monza meet on Sunday, September 13, in the fourth round of the 2026/27 Serie A season. Kick-off at Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare is scheduled for 15:00 local time. Both sides have already experienced difficult moments early in the campaign, making this an important opportunity to collect points against a direct rival.
- Also read: Can Cagliari finally break their losing streak? Cagliari vs Lecce Prediction | September 7, 2026
Lecce: a mixed start and a need to restore defensive stability
Eusebio Di Francesco remains in charge of Lecce, and his side have experienced two completely different league matches so far. They opened the Serie A campaign with a 2-0 victory away to Venezia, with Olaf Gorter and Tiago Gabriel scoring after the break, before suffering a heavy 4-0 home defeat against Roma. Lecce therefore have three points from two completed league fixtures, with two goals scored and four conceded.
That defeat to Roma exposed problems when Lecce were forced to defend for long spells against technically superior opposition. Against Monza, however, Di Francesco’s side should have more opportunities to control territory and play higher up the pitch. Home advantage is particularly important here, as this is the type of fixture Lecce will view as a realistic opportunity to collect points.
There is also a personnel concern in attack. Willem Geubbels has been dealing with a leg problem and was left out of Lecce’s latest matchday squad after undergoing treatment. Di Francesco still has Nikola Štulić, Santiago Pierotti, Konan N’Dri and other alternatives available, but the absence of Geubbels reduces his options in the central attacking role.
Monza: signs of improvement, but Juric has limited options
Monza returned to Serie A under Ivan Juric, who replaced Paolo Bianco in the summer. The newly promoted side have collected only one point from their first three league matches, scoring four goals and conceding eight. They lost 4-1 to Inter and 3-2 to Udinese before finally opening their points account with a 1-1 draw away to Parma.
The result in Parma was nevertheless encouraging. Monza created several promising situations, Jay Robinson scored his first Serie A goal, and Juric’s team showed much better defensive balance than in the opening two rounds. That performance followed a 1-0 Coppa Italia victory away to Torino, so the recent trend suggests Monza are becoming more compact after an extremely open start to the league season.
The main problem is the injury list. Captain Matteo Pessina is recovering after surgery on a dislocated kneecap, while Gustavo Varela is currently sidelined with a thigh problem. Varela’s absence is particularly significant after he scored against both Inter and Udinese. Patrick Ciurria and Idrissa Touré are also among the players currently dealing with physical problems, while Patrick Cutrone missed the latest league match after a late issue.
Key trends
- Lecce are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Monza.
- Four of the last five head-to-head meetings produced fewer than 2.5 goals.
- Monza have conceded eight goals in their first three Serie A matches.
- Monza’s two most recent completed official matches ended 1-0 and 1-1.
- Lecce kept a clean sheet in their opening league victory over Venezia.
Prediction
Monza’s early league statistics suggest an open game, but their latest performances tell a slightly different story. Juric has started to tighten the structure, and the absence of Varela and several other important players could encourage the visitors to take fewer risks away from home.
Lecce also have good reason to approach this match carefully after conceding four against Roma. Di Francesco’s priority should be restoring defensive stability rather than turning the contest into an end-to-end battle. The head-to-head record reinforces that view: only one of the last five meetings between these teams has produced more than two goals.
With both sides likely to value avoiding defeat and Monza missing some important attacking pieces, a controlled game with a 1-0 or 1-1 type of scoreline looks more probable than a high-scoring contest.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals.
