Gattuso faces his former club. Lazio vs Milan prediction
Lazio and Milan will meet on Saturday, 12 September, in the fourth round of the Italian Serie A. The match will take place at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, with kick-off at 18:00 CET. I am backing a goals market bet for this game.
H2H and statistical facts
- Lazio have won four consecutive Serie A matches.
- Milan are yet to lose under Ruben Amorim.
- The Rossoneri have conceded in four consecutive away matches.
- Milan have beaten Lazio in Rome just three times in the last 11 years.
Gattuso's side have yet to drop points
Lazio head into the fourth round of Serie A as one of three teams to have collected the maximum number of points at the start of the season. The Romans have won all three matches and currently share top spot with Roma and Inter. The team have conceded just one goal, underlining the reliability of their defence at the start of the campaign. Lazio narrowly beat Bologna away in the opening round, then defeated Genoa 1-0 at home before snatching a 2-1 victory over Udinese in the third round.
The match against Udinese was particularly telling. Lazio were trailing after the break but managed to turn the game around and score twice late on. Davide Frattesi scored in his third consecutive match since joining from Inter on loan, while Albert Guðmundsson scored the winning goal on his debut for the Roman club. The team's ability to improve as a match progresses could prove to be a major weapon against Milan as well.
At the same time, Lazio have not been playing an exclusively attacking brand of football. Gattuso's side have scored four goals in three matches, averaging 1.33 goals per game. Their defensive numbers, however, are very impressive: Lazio are conceding an average of just 0.33 goals per match and have already kept two clean sheets. The meeting with Milan will be the first genuinely serious test for this defence of the new season.
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Amorim's side are still searching for their identity
Milan have also started the season unbeaten and have seven points after three rounds. The team have won two matches and drawn one, leaving them behind only the three leaders in terms of points dropped. In the opening round, the Rossoneri beat Torino 2-1, then comfortably overcame Venezia 2-0 before drawing 1-1 with Juventus in Turin in their most recent match. Milan have therefore already faced a serious test early in the campaign.
The result in Turin can be considered a positive one for the team. Milan avoided defeat away to one of their main rivals and maintained their place among the leading sides. At the same time, the team have shown a fairly balanced approach: they have scored five goals and conceded two in three rounds. Those figures are slightly better than Lazio's attacking numbers, although the Rossoneri trail the Romans in terms of defensive solidity.
The distribution of attacking responsibility at Milan is also worth noting. The team do not rely on one clearly defined goalscorer and are getting goals from different players. Gonzalo Ramos and Adrien Rabiot have found the net in the opening three rounds, while Samuel Chukwueze has already registered two assists. Nineteen-year-old Cissé has also scored twice after making a promising impression for Catanzaro last season.
Another factor in the visitors' favour is their strong possession numbers. Milan have averaged 56 per cent possession, compared with 49 per cent for Lazio. It can therefore be expected that the team from Milan will look to control the game more often and force the hosts to spend more time defending.
Probable line-ups
- Lazio: Mandas, Mussolini, Doig, Provstgaard, Tavares, Belahyane, Taylor, Frattesi, Isaksen, Zaccagni, Pinamonti.
- Milan: Maignan, Pavlović, de Winter, Thiaw, Moreira, Estupiñán, Musah, Modrić, Rabiot, Saelemaekers, Ramos.
What to bet on?
The upcoming encounter looks like one of the most intriguing fixtures of the fourth round. Lazio have won all three of their opening matches, boast the best defence and will have home advantage, while Milan arrive after a draw with Juventus and are also yet to taste defeat. At the same time, the statistics point to a fairly even contest: both teams have a positive goal difference of +3. Gattuso will welcome a side in Rome for which he spent a huge part of his career, so this should certainly be an interesting occasion. Lazio's character should be enough to make life difficult for a formidable opponent. My pick is for both teams to score.
