The hosts are targeting their third win of the season. Empoli vs Arezzo prediction
Empoli and Arezzo will meet on Friday, 11 September, in the fourth round of the Italian Serie B. The match will take place at the Carlo Castellani Stadium, with kick-off at 19:00 CET. I am backing a bet on the result and total goals in this game.
H2H and statistical facts
- Arezzo have kept a clean sheet just once in five matches this season.
- Empoli are unbeaten at home in seven consecutive matches.
- The teams have not met in an official fixture since 2005. Both Serie B meetings that year ended in 1-1 draws.
Empoli have made a fairly confident start to the new Serie B season. After three rounds, the team have six points, with two wins and one defeat. Guido Pagliuca's side beat Cremonese 1-0 in their opening match, then lost 1-3 to Mantova before securing a narrow away victory over Carrarese in the most recent round.
Empoli have already demonstrated their ability to get results in low-scoring matches. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that both of their victories have come by the same 1-0 scoreline. The team have not been particularly prolific, scoring just three goals in three rounds, but they have also conceded only three. This balance points to an emphasis on discipline and defensive solidity, which fits the nature of Italian Serie B.
The nature of their recent matches is also an important factor. After the setback against Mantova, Empoli did not abandon their cautious approach and managed to take three points away to Carrarese in the following round. The team enjoyed 59 per cent possession and largely prevented their opponents from creating serious danger in front of goal. That should give the hosts additional confidence ahead of their home fixture.
Empoli also look the stronger side on home soil. They have already won their only home league match, keeping a clean sheet against Cremonese. Therefore, against Arezzo, the hosts are likely to rely once again on a compact defence, control of the tempo and gradual pressure. An early goal could significantly alter the course of the match, as Empoli are capable of protecting a narrow lead.
Arezzo are playing their first season back in Serie B and have experienced serious problems at the start of the campaign. Christian Bucchi's side have collected three points from three rounds: they beat Avellino 2-1 in their opening match, then lost 2-3 to Palermo before suffering a heavy 0-5 defeat by Verona in the previous round.
Defence remains the team's main problem. Arezzo have already conceded nine goals in three rounds, an average of three per game. At the same time, they have scored four themselves, meaning the newcomers to the second tier do possess attacking potential. However, achieving positive results with such poor defensive statistics is extremely difficult, particularly against an opponent who have already kept two clean sheets this season.
The latest match in Verona was a major blow for Arezzo. The 0-5 defeat not only damaged their goal difference but also showed just how vulnerable the team can be against an opponent capable of quickly increasing the pressure. Bucchi now has to prepare his players psychologically for another away match and, above all, stabilise the defence. After conceding three goals against Palermo and five against Verona, this will be the visitors' main task.
At the same time, Arezzo should not be written off completely. The team began their league campaign with a victory over Avellino, securing a 2-1 win away from home. This shows that they are capable of picking up points on the road. However, to have a chance of succeeding in Empoli, the visitors will need to significantly improve their work without the ball and avoid individual mistakes. Otherwise, the hosts' advantage could become too great.
What to bet on?
Empoli look like clear favourites thanks to their more stable start, home advantage and significantly more reliable defence. Arezzo are capable of causing problems in attack, but after conceding nine goals in three rounds, it is difficult to expect the team to suddenly completely shut down their opponents' attacking threat. I am backing the hosts to avoid defeat, with no more than 3.5 goals scored in the match.
