Finland vs Lithuania prediction, H2H and probable line-ups – 9 October 2025
On Thursday, October 9, at 18:00 Central European Time, the Finland national team will host Lithuania at the Helsinki Olympic Stadium in the sixth round of 2026 World Cup qualifying, Group G. Let’s break down the winner’s bet for this showdown.
Finland
The Finnish national team is going through a rough patch, struggling to produce convincing results. Last year, they had a disastrous Nations League campaign—finishing bottom of their group and dropping to League C after losing all six matches. In World Cup qualifying, Finland opened with a win over Malta, but then unexpectedly dropped points to Lithuania in a 2-2 draw. That was followed by a crucial 2-1 victory over Poland, but the Finns then lost 0-2 to the Netherlands and suffered another defeat to Poland, 1-3 away. Despite this, they remain in the hunt for a World Cup spot: with 7 points, Finland sits third in Group G, three points behind both Poland and the Netherlands.
Up next, Finland faces the Netherlands and Malta, making the upcoming clash with Lithuania absolutely pivotal. Interestingly, Finland has never beaten Lithuania at home—their only previous home encounter was back in 2014, when the visitors won 1-0.
Lithuania
Lithuanian football is enduring tough times, and this is reflected in the results of the national team. In the previous Nations League campaign, Lithuania played in League C, where they lost every match against Kosovo, Cyprus, and Romania, resulting in relegation to the lowest division of the tournament. The World Cup qualifiers have been equally disappointing—after five rounds, Lithuania has yet to claim a single win, recording three draws and two defeats. They shared the points twice with Malta (0-0 and 1-1) and surprisingly drew with Finland, 2-2. With three points, Lithuania sits fourth in Group G and is virtually out of contention for advancement, especially with matches still to come against Finland, Poland, and the Netherlands.
The winless streak now stretches to 13 games in all competitions—their last victory came in 2024, when they defeated Latvia in the Baltic Cup. Notably, Lithuania has never lost to Finland in their head-to-head history, which adds extra intrigue to the upcoming fixture.
Probable line-ups
- Finland: Joronen, Peltola, Koski, Uronen, Alho, Lod, Tenho, Kairinen, Antman, Källman, Pohjanpalo.
- Lithuania: Gertmonas, Leketas, Girdvainis, Armalas, Lasickas, Gineitis, Upstas, Antanavičius, Sirgedas, Dolzhnikov, Jansonas.
Key facts and head-to-head
- Finland have lost 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Finland have lost 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Lithuania are winless in their last 13 matches.
- Lithuania have lost 5 of their last 6 away games.
Finland vs Lithuania match prediction
Despite Finland’s recent struggles, they remain a stronger and more organized side than Lithuania. The Finns will be highly motivated to avenge the frustrating draw from the first round, as victory is absolutely crucial to keep their qualification hopes alive. Lithuania, meanwhile, are enduring a poor run and look shaky across all competitions, making Finland the deserved favorite for this clash. My pick for this match is a Finland win, with odds of 1.49.
