Barcelona look more convincing than Milan: EuroLeague match prediction
Olimpia Milano
FC Barcelona
Olimpia Milano and Barcelona will meet on Thursday, October 22, in the seventh round of the EuroLeague regular season. The game will be played at the Unipol Forum in Milan, with tip-off scheduled for 20:30 CET. My pick is a bet on the winner of the game.
H2H and statistical facts
- Olimpia have lost their last two home games.
- In the EuroLeague, the Italians have suffered four consecutive defeats.
- Barcelona have won just one of their last five away games.
- In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the statistics favor Milan: seven wins to Barcelona’s three.
Olimpia Milano: European struggles and hope on home court
Milan head into this game in a difficult situation. In their previous EuroLeague outings, they lost to Baskonia, Maccabi and Real Madrid before also falling to Dubai. Four defeats in the team’s last five games in the competition point to defensive problems: even when the offense is firing, opponents are still scoring far too many points.
The loss to Dubai was particularly painful. Olimpia scored 97 points, but that was not enough to secure victory as they conceded 101. That result highlights one of the key tasks ahead of the clash with Barcelona — improving the quality of their defense and preventing the visitors from consistently finding open shots.
Their results in the Italian league have also been mixed. Milan lost to Verona, but then comfortably defeated Treviso and Napoli. Those victories showed that the team possesses plenty of offensive firepower and can put together highly productive stretches. The challenge now is to carry that efficiency onto the European stage, where the level of opposition is significantly higher.
Playing at home gives Olimpia a chance to turn things around, but they will need a more balanced performance to do so. Milan must not only maintain a high tempo on offense, but also control the boards, avoid turnovers and prevent defensive breakdowns after their own successful possessions. If the hosts once again allow their opponents to approach the 100-point mark, their chances of winning will be slim.
Barcelona: dangerous offense, but not without weaknesses
Barcelona have also endured some setbacks at the start of the season, but overall they look more competitive than their upcoming opponents. The Catalans lost to Dubai, then defeated Besiktas, and went on to alternate between strong and underwhelming performances. The team is capable of putting up big numbers, but it has yet to show the necessary consistency throughout an entire game.
One of Barcelona’s recent tests came against Olympiacos, with the Catalans losing 105-100 in overtime. Barcelona scored an impressive 100 points, but their opponents were even more prolific. The game once again showed that Barcelona’s offense can cause serious problems for any defense, but to win tight contests, the team must be more reliable without the ball.
In the Spanish league, Barcelona defeated Valencia 89-86, but immediately followed that result with a loss to Murcia and currently sit only in the middle of the table. Against Milan, the Catalans will need to defend the perimeter more attentively and prevent the hosts from scoring easy points in transition.
Barcelona can also rely on their offensive potential to make up for occasional mistakes. At the same time, Olimpia must not be underestimated: the Italians have already shown that they can score more than 100 points in a game. The Catalans need to impose their own rhythm, manage their workload wisely and avoid getting dragged into an uncontrolled shootout if they want to leave Milan with a victory.
What is the best bet?
Both teams head into this matchup with questions surrounding their defense, but Barcelona look slightly more appealing thanks to their more convincing EuroLeague results and ability to maintain a high offensive tempo. Milan will be dangerous on home court, especially if they can exploit the Catalans’ defensive weaknesses and turn the game into an open contest. Nevertheless, after their recent struggles in Europe, the hosts may find it difficult to contain their opponents’ attacking potential. My prediction is Barcelona +7 points.
