Can Ararat-Armenia withstand AZ's attacking quality? Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction – 22.10.202
Ararat-Armenia will host AZ Alkmaar at the Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan on Thursday, October 22, in the third round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. The Armenian side have lost both of their opening matches, while AZ arrive with three points after responding to their opening defeat with a victory over Hapoel Beer-Sheva.
Ararat-Armenia: attacking threat is there, defensive resistance is not
Tulipa's team have already discovered how unforgiving this level can be. Ararat-Armenia opened the league phase with a 1-4 defeat against Sparta Prague before losing 1-3 away to Jagiellonia. Seven goals conceded in two matches clearly underline the biggest problem for the Armenian champions.
At the same time, Ararat-Armenia have not looked completely harmless going forward. They scored in both Europa League matches, and against Jagiellonia they even took the lead in the 11th minute when Zidane Banjaqui finished a move created by Maxence Carlier.
That positive start did not last long. Banjaqui was forced off only a few minutes later with an injury, and Ararat-Armenia gradually lost control of the game. His condition is therefore one of the main questions ahead of the AZ clash, with Zhirayr Shaghoyan an obvious option to replace him.
Sandro Lima remains the focal point in attack, while Artur Serobyan and Shaghoyan can offer pace in transition. Ararat-Armenia are particularly dangerous when they can attack space rather than build against a settled defence. The problem is at the other end: their back line has struggled once opponents increase the tempo and begin finding spaces between midfield and defence.
AZ Alkmaar: more control and a much-needed European victory
AZ also started the league phase with a defeat, losing 0-1 away to Sunderland, but Leeroy Echteld's team produced a much more convincing performance in their second match and beat Hapoel Beer-Sheva 2-1.
The numbers from that game were encouraging. AZ had 59% possession, attempted 15 shots, put seven on target and generated 2.25 expected goals. Peer Koopmeiners opened the scoring after half-time, while Mexx Meerdink converted a penalty after coming off the bench.
Meerdink's return is particularly important. He had recently dealt with a minor calf problem but was able to play and score in Europe. AZ also have several mobile attacking options around him, including Ro-Zangelo Daal, Ayoub Oufkir and Valdemar Byskov.
There are still personnel concerns in midfield. Kees Smit suffered an injury while on international duty and was expected to miss several weeks, while Stije Resink has been sidelined by a knee problem. Even without them, however, AZ possess considerably more depth and individual quality than their hosts.
Probable lineups
- Ararat-Armenia: João Bravim — Hugo Oliveira, Bruno Wilson, Luis Felipe, Edgar Grigoryan — Maxence Carlier, Juan Balanta, Alwyn Tera — Artur Serobyan, Zhirayr Shaghoyan — Sandro Lima.
- AZ Alkmaar: Jari De Busser — Seiya Maikuma, Wouter Goes, Wesley Hoedt, Mees de Wit — Dave Kwakman, Peer Koopmeiners, Valdemar Byskov — Ro-Zangelo Daal, Mexx Meerdink, Ayoub Oufkir.
Match facts
- Ararat-Armenia have scored in both of their Europa League league-phase matches.
- They have conceded seven goals across those two games.
- Both Ararat-Armenia matches in the league phase have produced at least four goals.
- AZ created 15 shots and 2.25 xG in their 2-1 victory over Hapoel Beer-Sheva.
- AZ have scored only twice in the league phase so far, but their chance creation improved significantly in the second round.
Ararat-Armenia can contribute, but AZ should create enough chances
AZ should spend longer periods in possession and have the technical quality to expose a defence that has already conceded four goals to Sparta and three to Jagiellonia. Echteld's team looked much sharper in their previous European match and should again generate plenty of opportunities in the final third.
However, backing only the visitors ignores Ararat-Armenia's ability to create chances of their own. Tulipa's side have found the net in both league-phase games, possess pace on the counterattack and will be playing at home. Their attacking approach can help turn this into another open European night.
With Ararat-Armenia's first two league-phase matches producing eight goals in total and AZ coming off a performance in which they created more than two expected goals, the goal market looks more attractive than choosing the outright winner.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals.
