Can Marseille finally translate their quality into European points? Sturm Graz vs Marseille prediction – 22.10.2026
On Thursday, October 22, Sturm Graz will host Marseille at Stadion Graz-Liebenau in the third round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Kick-off is scheduled for 18:45 local time. Neither side can be satisfied with its European start: Sturm have collected only one point from two matches, while Marseille arrive in Austria still looking for their first points of the campaign.
- Also read: The Turks will try to bounce back from the thrashing. Fenerbahçe vs Slavia Prague prediction
Sturm Graz: domestic momentum meets European frustration
Fabio Ingolitsch’s team could hardly have asked for a more emphatic domestic result before this European fixture. On Sunday, Sturm crushed city rivals Grazer AK 6-1 despite conceding first. Oumar Diakité produced a spectacular hat-trick, while Luca Weinhandl, Jürgen Heil and captain Jon Gorenc Stanković also found the net.
That victory strengthened Sturm’s position in the Austrian Bundesliga. After nine rounds, the Graz side are fourth with 17 points, having scored 16 goals and conceded ten. Their league home record is particularly convincing: three wins and one draw from four matches.
Europe, however, has been a completely different story. Sturm opened their Europa League campaign with a goalless draw against Rennes before losing 3-0 away to Bournemouth. They are therefore still waiting for their first goal in the league phase. Against Bournemouth, Ingolitsch’s team did have a promising spell after the break and Jürgen Heil hit the post, but defensive errors eventually turned a competitive game into a comfortable defeat.
There is also a major personnel problem ahead of Marseille’s visit. First-choice goalkeeper Daniil Khudyakov suffered a fractured lower leg during the derby against GAK and underwent surgery immediately afterwards. He will not be available on Thursday, meaning Ammar Helac is the natural option to take over in goal.
Sturm are already without two important Georgian players. Otar Kiteishvili suffered a calf muscle injury and was ruled out for several weeks, while Gizo Mamageishvili is also sidelined for a number of weeks with a foot injury. Losing Kiteishvili in particular takes creativity and experience out of the hosts’ midfield.
Marseille: five goals in Angers, but still no points in Europe
Marseille travel to Graz with exactly the opposite problem: their recent domestic results have improved sharply, but Bruno Genesio’s side have yet to transfer that momentum to the Europa League.
OM have now won two Ligue 1 matches in a row. After a 2-0 away victory against Troyes, Marseille produced their most productive attacking display of the season on Sunday, beating Angers 5-2. Five different players scored — Himad Abdelli, Nouhoum Kamissoko, Amine Gouiri, Amine Harit and Igor Paixão — an encouraging sign for a team that had previously struggled for consistency in the final third.
The result moved Marseille onto nine points in Ligue 1, but their European situation is much less comfortable. Genesio’s team lost 4-1 away to Beşiktaş in the opening round and were then beaten 1-0 at home by Olympiacos. After two rounds, OM have no points and have already conceded five goals.
That makes the trip to Graz particularly important. Marseille cannot afford to let another European match slip away, especially against an opponent that has also struggled to create and convert chances at this level.
Team news
Marseille also have some personnel concerns. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg missed the victory at Angers after his recent injury, although he had already returned to collective training, so his availability in Graz remains worth monitoring. Derek Cornelius was also absent through injury.
There were more positive signs elsewhere. Nayef Aguerd returned to action from the bench against Angers, while Timothy Weah, CJ Egan-Riley, Geoffrey Kondogbia and Emerson were all available in defence. Further forward, Gouiri, Harit, Abdelli and Paixão all started and contributed to the five-goal performance.
For Sturm, Khudyakov’s absence is the biggest immediate concern. Helac was sent on after the goalkeeper’s injury against GAK and is expected to be the leading candidate to start against Marseille.
Key trends
- Sturm Graz have taken one point from their first two Europa League matches and are yet to score.
- Marseille have lost both of their Europa League matches, conceding five goals.
- Sturm are unbeaten in their first four Austrian Bundesliga home games this season.
- Marseille have won their last two Ligue 1 matches, scoring seven goals and conceding two.
- Oumar Diakité scored a hat-trick in Sturm’s latest match.
- Marseille had five different goalscorers in their 5-2 victory over Angers.
Marseille have the higher ceiling, but Graz will not be comfortable
The European results of both teams make it difficult to fully trust either side. Sturm are much stronger at home than their 0-3 defeat at Bournemouth might suggest, and the confidence generated by a 6-1 derby victory should not be underestimated. Diakité’s form also gives the Austrian side a genuine threat in transition.
Still, Marseille appear to have the higher individual ceiling. Their attacking performance against Angers was a significant step forward, with several different players contributing, while Genesio has more options capable of deciding a tight match through individual quality.
Sturm’s personnel situation also matters. Kiteishvili’s absence removes one of their most influential midfielders, and losing first-choice goalkeeper Khudyakov only four days before such an important European fixture is another serious blow.
Marseille’s poor European start means backing them without any protection would be unnecessarily aggressive. However, given their stronger squad, improving attacking form and Sturm’s important absences, siding with the visitors while keeping the draw covered looks like the most balanced option.
Prediction: Marseille Asian handicap (0).
