Bahia vs Gremio prediction, H2H and probable lineups - October 20, 2025
One of the highlight fixtures of matchday 29 in the Brazilian Championship will take place on Sunday at the Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador, where Bahia will host Gremio. Here’s a betting pick for this clash that offers promising odds for success.
Match preview
Bahia are enjoying a strong campaign and currently sit in the Copa Libertadores qualification zone. Rogério Ceni’s side have been especially impressive at home—winning 9 of 13 matches on their own turf, boasting the best home points tally in the league.
In recent weeks, Bahia have alternated between triumphs and setbacks—victories over Flamengo and Palmeiras have been offset by defeats to Vasco and Botafogo. However, the return of several key players from suspension is set to bolster the squad for this crucial encounter with Gremio.
Gremio find themselves in an unstable position—just 11th in the standings and eight points clear of the relegation zone. Mano Menezes’ team is facing a personnel crisis: up to 12 players are unavailable due to injuries and suspensions.
On the road, the Immortal Tricolor have struggled—just three wins in 14 away games, averaging less than a point per match outside Porto Alegre. Given their defensive issues and limited squad depth, Gremio may opt for a cautious approach, aiming to secure a draw.
Probable lineups
- Bahia: Ronaldo; Arias, Duarte, G. Xavier, Borduchi; Acevedo, Jean Lucas, Nestor; Ademir, Sanabria, Thiago
- Gremio: Gabriel Grando; Marcos Rocha, Noriega, Wagner Leonardo, Esteves; Cuéllar, Arthur, Edenilson; Alisson, Amuzu, Carlos Vinicius
Match facts and head-to-head
- Each of the last 6 head-to-head meetings between Bahia and Gremio has seen under 2.5 goals scored.
- In 4 of Gremio’s last 5 matches, the total goals were also under 2.5.
- Bahia have conceded just 10 goals in 13 home games this season.
Prediction
Bahia look more focused and confident on their home ground, but recent inconsistency and Gremio’s significant squad issues make for a cautious outlook. Given the low-scoring trend in their head-to-head clashes and Gremio’s recent matches, the best bet appears to be under 2.5 total goals.
