Winning momentum versus Slovenian pragmatism: prediction for the match Aluminij vs Dinamo Tirana — 23.07.2026
FC Dinamo City
On Thursday, July 23, at the Ljudski vrt stadium in Maribor, the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round will see Slovenian side Aluminij take on Dinamo City from Tirana. The hosts dropped into the Conference League after being eliminated from the Europa League, while the Albanian outfit stunned Astana with a dramatic comeback in their return leg. Kick-off is set for 20:00 local time.
- Also read: Prediction for the match Železničar Pančevo vs Braga: hosts aim to cause an upset - 22.07.2026.
Aluminij: cup triumph overshadowed by a severe attacking crisis
Aluminij earned their spot in European competition thanks to a Slovenian Cup victory, but the start of their continental campaign revealed just how tough it is for Jur Arsič's squad to create chances against well-organized opposition. In the Europa League's first qualifying round, the Slovenians failed to score in both legs against Sheriff: after a goalless draw in Tiraspol, they fell 0-1 at home.
In the return leg, Sheriff struck early, opening the scoring in the fifth minute and then calmly dictating the tempo. The Moldovan side controlled 65% of possession, registered 22 shots to Aluminij's nine, and hit the target eight times. Aluminij, by contrast, managed only two shots on goal, even though they were trailing for nearly the entire match.
The start of the Slovenian league campaign didn't help either. In their season opener, Aluminij played out a 0-0 draw with Maribor, stretching their goalless run to five official matches. During this stretch, their results read: 0-0, 0-3, 0-0, 0-1, and 0-0, with four of those five games featuring no more than a single goal.
Arsič deploys a system with three central defenders and a packed midfield. Against Sheriff, the team lined up in a 3-5-2, aiming to congest the center and transition through the flanks. However, strikers Bamba Susso and Murat Bajraj barely saw the ball in dangerous areas. Against Dinamo, the hosts may once again bet on a tight defense, set pieces, and a risk-averse approach.
Dinamo Tirana: four goals in Kazakhstan and an effective away strategy
The Albanians started their tie with Astana on the back foot, losing 0-1 at home. In the return leg, Astana again struck first, but after the break Dinamo completely turned the game around. Bruno Dita converted a penalty, Hekuran Berisha put the visitors ahead, and in extra time Lorenzo Vila and Mustafa Koma sealed a remarkable 4-1 victory. Dinamo advanced 4-2 on aggregate.
It's important to note that after 90 minutes, Dinamo led only 2-1, with two more goals coming in extra time. Still, the win was no fluke: Ilir Daja's side fired off 19 shots, hit the target 12 times, and kept pressing even after leveling the aggregate score.
Dinamo's main strength lies in their mobile midfield. Bruno Dita can launch attacks from deep, Lorenzo Vila makes late runs into the box, and Berisha excels at finding space between center-backs. In a 3-5-2, the Albanians are versatile—they can press high or deliberately concede possession to exploit space on the counter.
After 120 minutes in Kazakhstan, Dinamo enjoyed a full week to recover. In Slovenia, there's no need to go all out from the start: in the first leg of a two-match tie, Daja's side can afford to play more cautiously, knowing the return leg awaits in Tirana on July 30.
Squad news and likely line-ups
UEFA has published the official squad lists for both teams. As of July 21, there have been no new suspensions reported by official sources, so it's reasonable to expect similar starting line-ups to those used in the previous European fixtures.
- Aluminij: Raduha — Šimunič, Boben, Rok Šaubach — Koderman, Taylor, Jagić, Vrbanec, Težak — Susso, Bajraj.
- Dinamo Tirana: Tedja — Ismaili, Dita, Aliyi — Perndreca, Manellari, Vila, Ayodeji, Kefalia — Berisha, Kardaku.
Aluminij started their home game against Sheriff with this line-up, while Dinamo's core of Tedja, Dita, Vila, and Berisha powered the Albanians to their win over Astana.
Key match facts
- Aluminij have failed to score in their last five official matches.
- Both legs against Sheriff ended with under 1.5 total goals.
- At home against Sheriff, Aluminij managed only two shots on target.
- Dinamo fired 19 shots and hit the target 12 times away to Astana.
- The Albanian club scored four in Kazakhstan, but two came in extra time.
- The return leg is scheduled for July 30 in Tirana.
Will the hosts draw another blank? Aluminij vs Dinamo Tirana prediction
Dinamo's result in Kazakhstan makes the visitors a slightly more attractive pick in the outcome markets, but backing the Albanian side to win outright remains a risky bet. Aluminij are capable of sitting deep and have already shown this in the first leg against Sheriff, which ended 0-0.
The safer play is to bet against both teams scoring. The Slovenians are on a five-match goalless streak and have barely created dangerous chances—even when they were forced to chase the game. Dinamo have more attacking options, but after their taxing battle with Astana, they're unlikely to turn this first away leg into an open shootout.
The most likely scenario is a cautious game, with the visitors having more of the chances. Dinamo could snatch a 1-0 win, but the 'both teams to score — no' bet also covers a goalless draw or a narrow home victory.
Prediction: both teams to score — no.
