Vulnerable defenses promise a high-scoring clash: prediction for Flora vs The New Saints – 23.07.2026
On Thursday, July 23, 2026, the A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn will play host to the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round between Estonia’s Flora and Wales’ The New Saints. Kick-off is set for 19:00 local time. Both clubs started their European campaigns in the Champions League, but after suffering defeats in the opening round, they now continue their journey in UEFA’s third-tier competition.
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Flora: Attack delivers, but defensive reliability is lacking
Konstantin Vassiljev’s side crashed out of the Champions League after a goal-filled tie with Georgia’s Iberia 1999. Flora lost 2-3 at home in Tallinn, then drew 2-2 away in Tbilisi. That means the Estonian side scored four times across the two legs but conceded five. In the away match, Flora trailed 0-2 but rallied after halftime thanks to goals from Tõnis Värjund and Rauno Sappinen.
In their European outings, Flora proved they can maintain a high tempo and create chances even when facing adversity. Veterans Sergei Zenjov and Sappinen remain the key attacking threats, while Värjund has found the net in the team's last two matches. However, the defense continues to make costly errors, especially against fast breaks and set pieces.
Their most recent Estonian league fixture hardly boosted confidence either. Flora suffered a 1-2 home defeat to Nõmme United. Notably, they were reduced to ten men as early as the 11th minute after goalkeeper Kaur Kivilä was sent off. Even down to ten, the hosts seized the initiative after the break and pulled one back through Värjund, but couldn't avoid defeat. After 19 rounds, Flora sit second in the table with 36 points.
The main advantage for the Estonians ahead of this tie is their match fitness. The national league runs on a spring-to-autumn schedule, so Vassiljev’s men are already in peak physical condition. However, a packed fixture list and three emotionally draining encounters in a row could impact their defensive focus.
The New Saints: Welsh champions must show more attacking intent
The New Saints also failed to clear the first qualifying hurdle in the Champions League. Craig Harrison’s side lost twice to Azerbaijan’s Sabah: 0-2 away, then 1-2 at home. The aggregate score: 1-4.
However, those results don’t fully reflect the second-leg performance. The Welsh outfit regularly threatened in and around Sabah’s penalty area, and had several chances to score in the second half. In the 89th minute, young Josh Lock capitalized on a defensive error to open his first-team account, and Jack Bodenham later struck the woodwork.
In attack, Harrison can count on Jordan Williams, Ryan Brobbel, and Danny Redmond. The midfield engine room features Leo Smith, Dominic Corness, and newcomer Rhys Hughes. In terms of individual talent, The New Saints are unlikely to be outclassed by their opponents, but being at the very start of their domestic season, the Welsh champions still lack cohesion.
Against a much stronger Sabah, the champions of Wales spent much of their tie on the back foot. In Tallinn, the script should change: The New Saints will have more space to operate, enjoy longer spells of possession, and can better utilize the pace of their attacking players. Given Flora’s defensive struggles during transitions, the visitors will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet.
Probable line-ups
Official squad lists for this match were not yet published at the time of writing. The projected line-ups are based on the teams’ most recent European fixtures.
- Flora: Grünvald — Tovstik, Kolobov, Veering, Kuraksin — Kreida, Valdmetz, Alamaa — Zenjov, Sappinen, Värjund.
- The New Saints: Shepperd — Dan Williams, Simeu, Bodenham — Redmond, Leo Smith, Farrell, Corness, Rhys Hughes — Jordan Williams, Brobbel.
Key facts ahead of the match
- Flora’s two matches against Iberia 1999 produced a combined nine goals.
- Flora have both scored and conceded in their last three official matches.
- Each of the Estonian club’s last three games has featured at least three goals.
- The New Saints conceded two goals in both meetings with Sabah.
- The teams have never met before in official competition.
More defensive errors than caution: Flora vs The New Saints prediction
The first leg of a two-legged tie usually brings a degree of caution, but given the current form of both sides, a more open match is on the cards. Flora will be eager to seize the initiative at home and take an advantage to Wales. The Estonians have already shown against Iberia that they can create chances and come from behind, but their defense has yet to cope under pressure without making serious mistakes.
The New Saints failed to score in their first leg against Sabah but looked much sharper in the return fixture. The Estonian opposition will offer the Welsh side far more space, so the visitors should be able to create several good opportunities against Evert Grünvald.
Rather than picking a winner in what looks a very even tie, it makes sense to focus on goals. Flora have played three straight matches with over 2.5 total goals, and their two European games ended 2-3 and 2-2. The hosts should find the net at home, but keeping a clean sheet will be tough.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals.
