Paris Saint-Germain vs Real Madrid prediction, H2H and probable lineups — July 9, 2025
The Club World Cup semifinal brings us a high-stakes clash between PSG and Real Madrid. The match takes place on Wednesday, July 9, with kickoff scheduled for 21:00 Central European Time. I'm backing a bet on goals in this contest.
Match preview
The Parisians are enjoying the greatest era in their history. Domestic triumphs in Ligue 1 or the French Cup have long since ceased to surprise anyone, but Luis Enrique’s men achieved the unthinkable last season. Winning the Champions League has forever etched this team into the capital club’s legacy.
This summer, PSG are carrying their sparkling form into the Club World Cup, regularly creating a host of chances. In the group stage, the only slip came against Botafogo, but they gave no quarter to either Seattle or Atletico Madrid.
In the round of 16, Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami proved no match for the French side. PSG settled the tie inside the opening 45 minutes, firing four unanswered goals past the Americans.
In the quarterfinals, PSG got their revenge against Bayern Munich. The match was marred by a horrific injury to Musiala, which affected Donnarumma’s mindset, as well as two red cards. While Lucas Hernandez’s sending off shouldn’t be a major issue, the absence of key central defender Paco could play into Real Madrid’s hands.
The Madrid giants are in the midst of a rebuild, still adapting to the demands of new boss Xabi Alonso. In flashes, the team shows the intensity the fiery Spaniard demands, but overall, Los Blancos’ play still looks rather raw.
That vulnerability was exploited by Al Hilal, who took points off Real at the start of the group stage. Playing with ten men, Alonso’s men saw off Pachuca and then handled Salzburg without much trouble—not that anyone expected otherwise.
In the knockout rounds, Kylian Mbappé returned to the squad after missing three games through illness. The tense but deserved victory over Juventus was followed by a clash with Dortmund, where Mbappé scored off the bench but Real’s fans had their spirits dampened by Huijsen’s red card.
Special mention must go to 21-year-old Gonzalo Garcia. How many had even heard of this player before the Club World Cup? The youngster had played just six matches for Real over two seasons, but under Alonso, he’s blossomed with four goals in five outings.
Match facts
- PSG have kept three consecutive clean sheets.
- Real have yet to lose under Xabi Alonso: 4 wins and a draw.
- PSG average 2.4 goals per match, while Real average 2.2 goals per match.
Probable lineups
- Paris Saint-Germain: Donnarumma, Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes, Vitinha, Neves, Ruiz, Kvaratskhelia, Doué, Dembélé.
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Alexander-Arnold, Rüdiger, Asensio, Garcia, Tchouaméni, Güler, Valverde, Bellingham, Vinicius, Mbappé.
H2H
The sides have met 10 times: Real lead 5-3 with two draws.
Prediction
Both teams are in stellar form. PSG always play on the front foot, and since Xabi Alonso’s arrival, Real have also ramped up their attacking game. This showdown feels worthy of a final, promising a true spectacle for the fans in the stands. Expect attacking football and plenty of chances. Bookmakers see the French side as a slight favorite, but the Spaniards have repeatedly shown their strength on the biggest stage. My pick: over 2.5 total goals.
