One month after the final: Thailand vs Vietnam prediction – 29.09.2026
Thailand
Vietnam
Thailand and Vietnam will meet on Tuesday, September 29, in the second round of Group B at the inaugural FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026. The match will take place at Si Jalak Harupat Stadium in Bandung and kicks off at 19:30 local time. With only three group matches and only the group winner advancing to the final, there is very little room for error in what is effectively the biggest game of Group B.
- Also read: Vietnam vs Philippines: a new tournament begins with another meeting between familiar rivals
Thailand arrive with confidence after a perfect start
Anthony Hudson's team could hardly have asked for a better opening to the competition. Thailand defeated Pakistan 4-0 in their first group match, with Teerasak Poeiphimai producing a hat-trick and immediately confirming his importance in the War Elephants' attack.
Hudson has brought a strong 23-man squad to Indonesia. Chanathip Songkrasin is back with the national team, Nicholas Mickelson provides quality and international experience on the flank, while Teerasak, Supachai Chaided and Jude Soonsup-Bell give the coach several different attacking options.
The result against Pakistan was also important psychologically. Thailand had finished the previous ASEAN Championship with a painful defeat to Vietnam and entered this tournament needing a quick response.
However, the level of opposition now rises dramatically. Vietnam have repeatedly caused Thailand problems in recent years, and Hudson's side will have to be much more careful when building attacks because their opponents are particularly dangerous after turnovers.
Vietnam return as regional champions
Vietnam arrive at the tournament with Kim Sang-sik retaining most of the squad that successfully defended the ASEAN Championship title in August.
Patrik Le Giang, Nguyen Thanh Chung, Bui Hoang Viet Anh, Nguyen Hoang Duc, Nguyen Hai Long, Nguyen Dinh Bac and Nguyen Xuan Son all remain important parts of the team. There are also two notable new faces in Nguyen Adou Leygley Minh and Williams Minh Hoang.
One significant absence is Nguyen Quang Hai. The influential midfielder was ruled out because of a left ankle injury and was replaced in the squad by Vo Hoang Minh Khoa. Even without Quang Hai, Vietnam still possess plenty of creativity and experience through midfield and attack.
Most importantly, Kim Sang-sik already knows exactly how to hurt Thailand. The teams met twice in the ASEAN Championship final just over a month ago. Vietnam won the first leg 2-0 before drawing 2-2 in Hanoi, securing the trophy with a 4-2 aggregate victory.
Recent meetings favour Vietnam
Thailand may have the historical advantage across the entire rivalry, but the recent trend has changed dramatically.
Vietnam are unbeaten in their last four meetings with Thailand. They won both matches in the 2024 ASEAN Championship final, beat Thailand 2-0 in the first leg of the 2026 final and then drew the return match 2-2.
That sequence is especially relevant because the core of both teams remains familiar. Vietnam have repeatedly been able to restrict Thailand's combinations through the centre before attacking the space left behind the full-backs.
Thailand's 4-0 opening victory shows that Hudson's team are in good attacking condition, so another comfortable Vietnamese win should not be expected. This should be a much more balanced contest, with Thailand likely to have spells of possession and Vietnam looking for opportunities to accelerate after regaining the ball.
Vietnam's recent edge can make the difference
There is little separating these teams in terms of individual quality, and Thailand's opening performance makes this a dangerous match for the reigning regional champions.
Still, Vietnam have the stronger recent record in this particular matchup. Kim Sang-sik's structure has worked extremely well against Thailand, and his team have shown they can both defend patiently and punish mistakes in transition.
On neutral ground in Bandung, Thailand will not have the home advantage they enjoyed in the first leg of August's final. With the pressure on both teams to take control of Group B, the match should remain competitive for long periods, but Vietnam's tactical discipline and recent psychological advantage make the visitors an attractive option.
Prediction: Vietnam to win (Odds: 2.15)
