Germany - Portugal prediction, H2H and probable line-ups - June 4, 2025
One of the UEFA Nations League semi-finals will take place on Wednesday in Munich, where Germany and Portugal will clash at the Allianz Arena. Here’s a combined bet suggestion for this game with a solid odds value.
Match preview
Germany have displayed consistency and attacking prowess throughout this Nations League campaign. Julian Nagelsmann’s side remain unbeaten in eight matches, notching up five wins and three draws. The attacking line deserves special mention: the Germans have been the tournament’s most prolific scorers with 23 goals, netting at least twice in seven of their last nine matches in the competition.
On home turf, Germany are incredibly tough to beat in the Nations League, going unbeaten in 11 of their last 12 home fixtures. In the quarter-finals, after a 2-1 away win over Italy, the Mannschaft led 3-0 at half-time at home but somehow ended up drawing 3-3. Despite defensive absences, the return of ter Stegen and the solid form of attackers like Sané and Undav provide optimism for extending their winning run.
Portugal snatched their semi-final ticket in dramatic fashion against Denmark, showing grit but also exposing defensive frailties. They lost the first leg in Copenhagen, managed to equalize, and finally overcame their rivals only in extra time. That was their only defeat of this Nations League campaign, but the worrying sign is that Portugal have conceded in seven of their eight tournament matches.
On the road, Roberto Martínez’s team have looked less convincing: just two wins in their last seven away matches in the Nations League. The defense tries to stay disciplined, but consistency is lacking — especially against the likes of Germany. The absences of Cancelo and Araújo further weaken the backline, and there’s a real risk that Germany’s powerful attack could capitalize.
Probable line-ups
- Germany: Marc-André ter Stegen – Waldemar Anton, David Raum, Jonathan Tah – Joshua Kimmich, Karim Adeyemi, Florian Wirtz, Pascal Groß, Leon Goretzka – Leroy Sané, Deniz Undav
- Portugal: Diogo Costa – Nuno Mendes, Rúben Dias, Diogo Dalot – Vitinha, João Neves, Bruno Fernandes, João Félix – Rafael Leão, Cristiano Ronaldo, Pedro Neto
Match facts and head-to-head
- Germany are unbeaten in their last 8 Nations League matches
- Portugal have conceded in 7 of their last 8 tournament games
- Both teams have scored in each of the last three head-to-head meetings
Prediction
The Munich semi-final promises goals: both teams love to attack, but the hosts boast a stronger record and the home advantage. Germany consistently pick up points at home, while Portugal have been shaky away. Our bet for this match is “Germany not to lose and over 1.5 total goals” at odds of 1.60.
