Can Slovenia exploit North Macedonia’s scoring crisis? Slovenia vs North Macedonia prediction - 29.09.2026
Slovenia and North Macedonia meet on Tuesday, September 29, in the second round of UEFA Nations League B Group 1. The match at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana kicks off at 20:45 local time. Slovenia opened the campaign with a point against Scotland, while North Macedonia are already under pressure after a heavy home defeat to Switzerland. With the group winner earning promotion and the bottom side dropping to League C, points in a direct meeting like this could prove particularly valuable.
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Slovenia: the defence held, but Šeško’s absence is noticeable
Boštjan Cesar’s team began their Nations League campaign with a 0-0 draw against Scotland in Ljubljana. Slovenia had a promising opening half-hour, but gradually lost control and were forced to defend for long periods after the break. They finished with only 35% possession and one shot on target, while Jan Oblak made five saves to preserve the clean sheet. Jaka Bijol admitted afterwards that Slovenia physically dropped as the match progressed, but stressed that the target against North Macedonia is three points.
The biggest problem remains the absence of Benjamin Šeško. The Manchester United striker is missing the international window through injury, depriving Cesar of his most dangerous individual weapon. Žan Zaletel and Nik Prelec also withdrew, while defenders Kenan Bajrić and Marcel Ratnik had already been ruled out when the original squad was announced.
Even without Šeško, Slovenia still have enough experience through Oblak, Bijol, Adam Gnezda Čerin and Timi Max Elšnik, while Andraž Šporar, Aljoša Matko, Žan Vipotnik and Danijel Šturm give Cesar several options in attack. The main question is whether the hosts can turn territorial pressure into clear chances more effectively than they did against Scotland.
North Macedonia: five matches without a goal
North Macedonia could hardly have made a more difficult start to life in League B. Goce Sedloski’s side lost 0-3 at home to Switzerland, with the visitors controlling the match and creating enough opportunities for an even wider margin. Stole Dimitrievski produced several important saves, but goals from Remo Freuler and Zeki Amdouni decided the contest.
The bigger concern is the attacking trend. North Macedonia have failed to score in each of their last five matches: defeats against Denmark, Türkiye and Switzerland were accompanied by goalless draws with Ireland and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Across those five games, their record is two draws, three defeats and a goal difference of 0-11.
Sedloski also has personnel problems. Defender Nikola Serafimov is unavailable through injury, while Darko Churlinov cannot take part in these matches because of administrative issues related to his residence status in Poland. That leaves even more responsibility on Elif Elmas, Enis Bardhi and Bojan Miovski to create something in Ljubljana.
Key trends
- Slovenia have lost only two of their last five matches and kept a clean sheet against Scotland in the opening round.
- North Macedonia are winless in their last five games and have not scored a single goal during that run.
- North Macedonia lost 0-3 to Switzerland in their Nations League opener.
- Slovenia have won only one of the last five head-to-head meetings, with North Macedonia recording two victories and two draws.
- The most recent meeting between the teams ended 1-1 in 2021.
Slovenia’s home advantage can make the difference
This is unlikely to be a spectacular attacking performance from Slovenia. Without Šeško, Cesar’s team lack their main source of pace, power and individual finishing, and the draw against Scotland showed that chance creation can still become a problem.
However, North Macedonia arrive in Ljubljana with even bigger issues. Five consecutive matches without scoring is difficult to ignore, and the opening-round defeat to Switzerland again exposed problems both in progressing the ball and in defending sustained pressure. Slovenia, by contrast, can rely on Oblak and a relatively experienced defensive core, while playing a second consecutive match at Stožice.
The historical head-to-head record warns against expecting an easy evening for the hosts, but the current trajectories of the two teams are very different. Slovenia should have more control than they managed against Scotland, and even one goal may be enough if North Macedonia’s attacking drought continues.
Prediction: Slovenia to win (Odds: 1.67)
