Can Belfast momentum carry the hosts again? Northern Ireland vs Hungary prediction – 28.09.2026
Northern Ireland and Hungary meet at Windsor Park in Belfast on Monday, September 28, in the second round of UEFA Nations League B Group 2. Michael O’Neill’s side opened their campaign with a dramatic 1-0 victory away to Georgia, while Hungary suffered a 1-0 home defeat against Ukraine and already find themselves under pressure to respond.
Northern Ireland: a historic win provides the perfect platform
Northern Ireland could hardly have asked for a better start to life in League B. Their victory in Tbilisi was their first ever away win in the Nations League and also their first victory at League B level, achieved at the 11th attempt. Pierce Charles saved a penalty from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia before Shea Charles struck with a superb volley in the ninth minute of stoppage time.
The performance was built on exactly the qualities Michael O’Neill normally demands from his team: compact defending, patience without the ball and the ability to remain competitive deep into the match. Georgia had more possession, but Northern Ireland still produced five shots on target and survived the most dangerous moment of the game through their goalkeeper.
There are still important absentees. Liverpool defender Conor Bradley, midfielder Alistair McCann and Brad Lyons are all unavailable through injury. However, Daniel Ballard is back in the squad, while experienced defender Paddy McNair has recovered from his foot problem and appeared from the bench in Tbilisi.
Hungary: plenty of possession, but finishing remains the concern
Hungary's opening defeat was frustrating rather than one-sided. Marco Rossi’s team had 57% possession and registered 17 attempts against Ukraine, compared to ten from their opponents, but only four Hungarian shots were on target. Dániel Lukács also hit the woodwork before Danylo Sikan scored the only goal shortly before half-time.
Rossi also has significant personnel problems in attacking areas. Barnabás Varga, Roland Sallai and Callum Styles were all forced to withdraw from the original squad because of injuries. Donát Bárány, Zsolt Nagy and Milán Tóth were called up as replacements, leaving Hungary without several established attacking options for this international window.
Dominik Szoboszlai remains the central figure in Hungary’s attacking structure, while András Schäfer and Milos Kerkez provide quality around him. However, against Ukraine the visitors struggled to turn territorial control into clear chances, and Belfast is unlikely to offer much more space against an opponent that has just demonstrated how comfortable it can be defending without the ball.
Probable lineups
- Northern Ireland: Pierce Charles; Hume, Ballard, Atcheson, Brown; Galbraith, Shea Charles, Devenny; Price, Kelly, Donley.
- Hungary: Balázs Tóth; Bolla, Orbán, Csinger, Kerkez; Csongvai, Schäfer, Vitális; Redzic, Szoboszlai, Lukács.
Both projected elevens are based primarily on the teams that started the opening Nations League fixtures and the currently confirmed squad absences.
Match facts and head-to-heads
- Northern Ireland began Group B2 with three points, while Hungary lost their opening fixture.
- Both teams’ first Nations League matches finished 1-0.
- Hungary have won five of the seven previous meetings with Northern Ireland, with one draw and one Northern Irish victory.
- Hungary won the most recent meeting 1-0 at Windsor Park in March 2022.
- Five of the seven previous head-to-head meetings produced no more than two goals.
Another tense night in Belfast: Northern Ireland vs Hungary prediction
Northern Ireland have an obvious reason to approach this game pragmatically. Three points in Tbilisi already put them in a strong early position, and O’Neill’s young side showed that it can defend for long stretches without losing its structure. At Windsor Park, the hosts should again be comfortable allowing Hungary more possession and waiting for opportunities in transition or from set pieces.
Hungary should create more than they did in terms of territory, but the absence of Varga and Sallai removes two proven attacking options, while their performance against Ukraine showed that possession and shot volume do not automatically translate into goals. Northern Ireland are not a team likely to turn this into an open contest either.
With both sides coming off 1-0 matches, Northern Ireland’s compact defensive approach and Hungary’s personnel problems in attack point towards another encounter in which at least one goalkeeper could keep a clean sheet.
Prediction: Both teams to score — No.
