Can Houston Extend Their Home Dominance Against Oklahoma City? Prediction | November 1, 2026
Houston Rockets
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Houston Rockets will host the Oklahoma City Thunder at Toyota Center on November 1 in an NBA regular-season matchup between two of the Western Conference’s leading teams. Both sides suffered defeats against the Dallas Mavericks in their most recent games, but Houston have the advantage of playing at home, where they remain unbeaten this season. The Rockets have also won their last two meetings with the Thunder, including a 116–89 victory in the preseason.
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Houston Rockets
Houston have made an impressive start to the 2026–27 season, winning five of their first six games to establish a 5–1 record and move into second place in the Western Conference. Their five-game winning streak ended with a 116–111 road loss to Dallas, when Kevin Durant led the Rockets with 28 points and five rebounds.
The Rockets rank third in the NBA in scoring, averaging 121.0 points per game, and second in field-goal percentage at 49.8%. They also rank fifth in three-point shooting at 37.9% and seventh in assists with 27.8 per game. Their offensive rating of 122.5 further highlights their efficiency, while their average of 21.0 fast-break points ranks third in the league.
Alperen Sengun has averaged 24.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists in four appearances, shooting 58.1% from the field. Durant contributes 23.3 points and 6.0 rebounds per game, while Amen Thompson averages 17.7 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Jabari Smith Jr. has added 17.2 points per game and is shooting 42.9% from three-point range.
Houston have been particularly effective at home, winning both games at Toyota Center while averaging 124.0 points and shooting 53.3% from the field. Their average scoring margin at home stands at +14.0, giving them a strong foundation ahead of this meeting.
Defensively, the Rockets allow 110.0 points per game, ranking tenth in the league. Opponents are shooting just 30.0% from beyond the arc against them, while Houston average 10.5 steals per game, the fourth-highest mark in the NBA.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City also began the season strongly, winning four consecutive games before suffering a 120–96 home defeat to Dallas. Ajay Mitchell led the Thunder with 29 points, four rebounds and three assists.
The Thunder enter this matchup with a 4–1 record and sit third in the Western Conference. Their defensive numbers remain impressive: they allow just 104.6 points per game, the second-lowest total in the NBA, while opponents shoot 42.6% from the field against them. Oklahoma City also average 6.8 blocks per game, tied for the second-highest figure in the league.
However, their offensive production has been less consistent. The Thunder average 108.2 points per game, ranking 27th, while their 44.0% field-goal percentage and 30.9% three-point shooting leave them behind Houston in both categories. Their 22.0 assists per game rank 29th, although they compensate in part with excellent free-throw shooting at 86.4%, the best mark in the NBA.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the team with 26.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game. Mitchell has averaged 18.6 points and 3.6 assists while shooting 53.6% from the field. Jalen Williams contributes 13.7 points per game, while Chet Holmgren averages 12.0 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.0 blocks in three appearances.
Oklahoma City’s home defense has been especially effective, allowing just 99.7 points per game across three victories. Their away performances have been less convincing: the Thunder have split two road games, averaging 106.0 points while allowing 112.0. Their only defeat so far came on the road, making this trip to Houston another test of their ability to maintain their defensive level away from home.
Head-to-Head
The teams have shared the spoils across their recent meetings, with three wins apiece in their last six matchups and five each across the last ten. However, Houston have taken the more recent encounters, winning their last two games against Oklahoma City, including the 116–89 preseason victory.
The Rockets have also won three of their last four home meetings with the Thunder. With Houston unbeaten at Toyota Center this season, their recent record against Oklahoma City provides further encouragement ahead of Sunday's game.
Prediction
Oklahoma City’s defensive efficiency makes them a difficult opponent, but Houston have a significant advantage in offensive production. The Rockets score 12.8 more points per game, shoot more accurately from the field and from three-point range, and generate nearly six additional assists per game. Their 2–0 home record, combined with an average scoring margin of +14.0 at Toyota Center, strengthens their position. The Thunder’s ability to limit opponents’ scoring could keep the contest competitive, particularly if their shot-blocking and free-throw accuracy prove decisive. However, their lower offensive output and less convincing road numbers present challenges against a Houston side that has already demonstrated its ability to win consistently at home. Houston’s recent head-to-head results and stronger offensive numbers also give the Rockets the edge. Recommended Bet: Houston Rockets to Win
