Eight derbies unbeaten — streak under threat: Milan vs Inter prediction
On October 31, the Milan derby will take place in the tenth round of the Italian Serie A. Milan are trying to cut their seven-point deficit to the top spot, while Inter continue their battle for first place. Both teams are experiencing defensive problems, but the Nerazzurri are noticeably superior to their fierce rivals in attacking numbers.
Milan: first defeat exposes weaknesses
Ruben Amorim’s team suffered their first defeat of the current championship, losing 4-2 to Bologna at San Siro. Before that, the Rossoneri had recorded consecutive victories over Atalanta (3-2) and Udinese (2-0). Even a brace from Alfadjo Cisse could not save the team from defeat, while conceding four goals highlighted their defensive organisation problems.
Positive squad news emerged ahead of the derby. Diego Moreira, Adrien Rabiot and Mario Gila have returned to training. Luka Modric and Christian Pulisic are also expected to start.
Milan’s main argument is their head-to-head record. The Rossoneri have gone eight matches unbeaten against Inter, recording five wins and three draws. However, the current state of their defence raises doubts about their ability to extend that run.
Inter: the league’s best attack targets the derby
Christian Chivu’s side have hit an impressive run of form, recording four consecutive wins after drawing with Roma. Their latest successes did not come easily: Fiorentina were beaten 2-1 thanks to a late goal, while victory over Venezia (2-0) was secured by two own goals from the opposition.
Despite those difficulties, Inter remain Serie A’s most prolific team. The Nerazzurri have scored 25 goals, compared with Milan’s 18. Their advantage is also clear in shots — 201 to 113 — as well as expected goals: 27.06 xG versus 19.37.
However, Chivu will be without Lautaro Martinez, who will return after the November international break. Marcus Thuram, meanwhile, is in excellent form, with five goals and two assists to his name. Hakan Calhanoglu, Manuel Akanji and Josep Martinez are expected to return to the starting lineup.
Match facts and head-to-head record
- Milan have gone eight matches unbeaten against Inter — five wins and three draws
- Inter have scored 25 league goals, compared with Milan’s 18
- The Nerazzurri have recorded four consecutive Serie A victories
Attacking power will decide the derby: Milan vs Inter prediction
Milan will receive a significant boost from the return of several players, but the defeat to Bologna exposed their defensive vulnerability. Against the most prolific team in the league, such mistakes could prove decisive.
Inter are not flawless at the back either, but they outclass their opponents in the number of chances created and the variety of their attacking solutions. Even without Lautaro Martinez, Chivu’s team are capable of regularly threatening the opposition goal. We expect a high-scoring derby in which the visitors’ attacking power will outweigh the Rossoneri’s historical advantage.
