Can Chivu break Milan's derby dominance? AC Milan vs Inter prediction – 31.10.2026
On Saturday, October 31, 2026, AC Milan and Inter will meet at San Siro in one of the most eagerly anticipated fixtures of the Italian season. The Derby della Madonnina, scheduled for 20:45 CET, will headline Matchday 10 of Serie A. The Nerazzurri arrive level on points with league leaders Lazio, while the Rossoneri are looking to recover from a painful home defeat and close the gap on their city rivals.
AC Milan: Defensive problems threaten to derail Amorim's promising start
Ruben Amorim's side had enjoyed an impressive opening to the domestic campaign, going unbeaten through their first eight league matches. However, that run ended dramatically on Wednesday when Milan suffered a 4-2 home defeat against Bologna.
The Rossoneri actually led 2-1 at halftime thanks to a brace from young Alphadjo Cissé, but their defensive organisation collapsed after the break. An own goal from Davide Bartesaghi and two further strikes from Samuel Mbangula completed a remarkable turnaround for Bologna.
The defeat left Milan fifth in the standings with 18 points from nine matches, seven behind Inter. Before that setback, the Rossoneri had beaten Atalanta 3-2 and Udinese 2-0, demonstrating that their attacking potential remains considerable.
However, personnel problems are becoming increasingly serious. Matteo Gabbia, Alexis Saelemaekers, Samuel Chukwueze and Ruben Loftus-Cheek have been sidelined, while Adrien Rabiot, Mario Gila and Diego Moreira have also been dealing with fitness issues. Fikayo Tomori suffered a thigh problem against Bologna and is another major doubt for the derby.
Amorim will therefore face difficult selection decisions, particularly in defence. Christian Pulisic, Gonçalo Ramos and Cissé offer enough quality to trouble Inter, but protecting the spaces behind the midfield could prove considerably more challenging.
Inter: Chivu's unbeaten side arrives with a seven-point advantage
Inter enter the derby in a much stronger position. Cristian Chivu's team have collected 25 points from nine league matches, recording eight victories and one draw. The reigning Italian champions are level with Lazio at the top of the table and have won their last four Serie A fixtures.
Their latest success came away to Venezia, where Inter eventually secured a 2-0 victory despite being frustrated for much of the contest.
Both goals arrived late through opposition own goals, with Marcus Thuram and Carlos Augusto playing crucial roles in forcing the decisive mistakes. The performance was far from flawless, but Inter demonstrated their ability to collect three points even when they are not at their best.
Chivu's preferred 3-5-2 formation provides the Nerazzurri with considerable tactical flexibility. Federico Dimarco and Andy Diouf offer width, while Nicolò Barella and Hakan Çalhanoğlu give the midfield technical quality and control.
There is, however, one particularly significant absence. Captain Lautaro Martínez is sidelined with a hamstring injury and is not expected to feature against Milan. Benjamin Pavard, John Stones, Curtis Jones and Luis Henrique have also been unavailable.
Without Lautaro, much of the attacking responsibility falls on Thuram, supported by Ange-Yoan Bonny or Francesco Pio Esposito. Nevertheless, Inter have continued winning in their captain's absence, suggesting their attacking structure remains functional.
Probable lineups
- AC Milan (4-2-3-1): Maignan; F. Terracciano, De Winter, Pavlović, Estupiñán; Musah, Jashari; Hutchinson, Cissé, Pulisic; Gonçalo Ramos.
- Inter (3-5-2): Provedel; Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni; Diouf, Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Bonny.
Match facts and head-to-head statistics
- Inter are unbeaten in their opening nine Serie A matches, with eight victories and one draw.
- The Nerazzurri have won four consecutive league games, scoring ten goals and conceding only two.
- Milan suffered their first Serie A defeat of the season in their previous match, losing 4-2 against Bologna.
- Milan have collected 18 points from nine matches, compared with Inter's 25.
- The Rossoneri won both league derbies in the 2025/26 season by identical 1-0 scorelines.
Inter's consistency could prove decisive: AC Milan vs Inter prediction
The derby is unlikely to be straightforward for either team. Milan have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to frustrate Inter, and their two victories last season underline how little recent form can sometimes matter in this fixture.
However, the current circumstances appear to favour Chivu's side.
Inter possess greater stability, more reliable defensive organisation and significantly more momentum in the league. Their ability to control midfield through Barella and Çalhanoğlu could be particularly important against a Milan side struggling with injuries and defensive uncertainty.
The absence of Lautaro Martínez certainly reduces Inter's attacking options, but Thuram remains a major threat, while the Nerazzurri's wing-backs can exploit the spaces left by Milan's aggressive attacking players.
Milan should create opportunities, especially with Pulisic and Ramos capable of producing individual moments of quality. Yet their defensive problems, combined with Inter's consistency and deeper selection of available midfielders, make the visitors the more convincing choice.
Prediction: Inter to win.
