Can Hajduk make another European statement? Thun vs Hajduk Split prediction – 22.10.2026
On Thursday, October 22, FC Thun will host Hajduk Split at VISANA Stadion in the second round of the UEFA Conference League league phase. The two clubs made completely different starts to the competition: Thun suffered a 1-0 defeat away to Twente, while Hajduk produced one of the standout results of the opening round by beating Ajax 2-1 in Split. Kick-off is scheduled for 21:00 CET.
Thun: the Swiss champions are struggling to find last season’s stability
Thun’s rise over the previous two seasons was remarkable. After winning promotion, they immediately became Swiss champions, but the summer also brought an important change on the touchline. Mauro Lustrinelli left for Union Berlin and Gian-Luca Privitelli, previously in charge of Switzerland U20, took over on a three-year contract. The club described his football as offensive and intense, although the transition has not been smooth so far.
The recent results underline the problem. Thun have lost four of their last five competitive matches: 0-1 against Grasshopper, 2-4 against Servette, a 2-1 win away to Vaduz, a 2-4 defeat at Zürich and finally the 0-1 loss to Twente. That sequence is particularly concerning defensively, with the Swiss side conceding 11 goals across those five games.
Their Conference League opener was another warning sign. Thun never really managed to impose themselves in Enschede and left the Netherlands without a point. Patrik Kristal, who started in midfield, was sent off during the second half, creating an additional selection problem ahead of the second European round. Privitelli had used a 4-4-2 against Twente, with Brighton Labeau and Furkan Dursun leading the attack.
There are other personnel concerns as well. The latest availability information lists Mats Seiler as injured and Marc Gutbub as dealing with a knock, while Genís Montolio is recovering from a serious knee injury. Thun therefore enter this fixture without ideal depth at a time when their defensive structure is already under pressure.
Hajduk: confidence is growing under Gonzalo García
Hajduk arrive in Switzerland in a much healthier sporting position. Gonzalo García remains in charge, and his team currently lead the Croatian championship with 19 points after nine rounds. Before opening their Conference League campaign, Hajduk also defeated Dinamo Zagreb 2-1, strengthening the impression that this side is capable of delivering in high-pressure matches.
The 2-1 victory over Ajax was particularly encouraging because of the way it was achieved. Hajduk repeatedly caused problems with aggressive pressing rather than simply defending deep. Marin Šotiček won the ball before creating the opening goal for Abdoulie Sanyang, while the decisive goal came from another high regain: Michele Šego stole possession and immediately supplied Šotiček, who finished the move.
That approach could be extremely uncomfortable for Thun. The Swiss champions have recently shown vulnerability when games become stretched, while Hajduk possess several players capable of attacking immediately after a turnover. Šego, Šotiček and Dalisson give García pace and movement between the lines, while Khalil Fayad and Alberto del Moral provide a platform in midfield.
The squad is not completely problem-free. Current availability information lists Adrion Pajaziti with an abdominal injury, goalkeeper Ivica Ivušić with illness and Roko Brajković as a long-term absentee. Even so, Hajduk’s starting eleven against Ajax showed that García still has enough quality to field a competitive side, with Toni Silić in goal and Šego leading a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Hajduk’s pressing can expose Thun’s current weaknesses
Thun will have home advantage and cannot be underestimated after last season’s extraordinary domestic success. However, their current trajectory is difficult to ignore. Four defeats in five competitive games, 11 goals conceded during that sequence and a losing start to the Conference League suggest that Privitelli’s team have yet to find the balance that made them so effective last season.
Hajduk, by contrast, have won four of their last five completed matches and have just shown against Ajax that they can compete with technically superior opposition without abandoning an aggressive approach.
The visitors should also be well suited to the tactical matchup. Thun need to take more initiative at home after losing their opening European game, and that should create opportunities for Hajduk to press, recover possession and attack the spaces left behind. The Croatian side look more convincing in decisive moments right now, and their recent victories over Dinamo Zagreb and Ajax provide strong evidence of that.
The price on a straight away victory also leaves enough room to accept the additional risk of backing the visitors rather than taking a safer handicap option. With Hajduk carrying greater momentum and Thun showing clear defensive instability, I expect García’s team to leave Switzerland with all three points.
Prediction: Hajduk Split to win.
