Athletic Bilbao vs Arsenal prediction, H2H and probable lineups — September 16, 2025
The opening round of the UEFA Champions League group stage will feature a clash between Athletic and Arsenal. The match is set to take place in Bilbao on Tuesday, September 16, with kickoff scheduled for 18:45 Central European Time. I’m offering my pick for the winner of this game.
Match preview
Athletic approach the Champions League in high spirits: Ernesto Valverde’s side have made a confident start in La Liga and, most importantly, have stuck to their trademark playing style.
The Basques continue to rely on intensity, high-energy pressing, and rapid transitions from defense to attack. In Bilbao, they know full well that to compete with Europe’s elite, they must capitalize on their home advantage — San Mamés is renowned for its unique atmosphere and the passionate support from the stands.
Athletic’s main weapons remain the Williams brothers — Iñaki and Nico — whose pace and ability to create chances down the flanks make the Basques a constant threat. Nico, in particular, has shone at the start of the new campaign, but he picked up an injury while playing for the Spanish national team.
Over the weekend, Athletic suffered their first defeat of the season. At home, they unexpectedly lost to Alavés, although their performance certainly deserved better. Nevertheless, they remain third in the league table, just behind Real Madrid and Barcelona.
Arsenal head into the Champions League as one of Europe’s most intriguing projects. Mikel Arteta continues to build a team that combines ball control, a variety of attacking patterns, and the ability to adapt quickly to different match scenarios.
The Gunners have become far more consistent and now look solid on all fronts. However, injuries remain the team’s Achilles’ heel.
Arteta has already lost Saka, Saliba, and White in the early matches of the season, while Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz are still recovering. As a result, the squad has been far from optimal in recent games, but the Spanish coach is gradually integrating newcomers like Eze and Mosquera, while Gyökeres and Zubimendi have already established themselves as regular starters.
In the victory over Nottingham Forest, Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard suffered another injury. Arteta stated that surgery would not be required, but Ødegaard is unlikely to feature in the upcoming match.
Match facts
- Athletic haven’t drawn a match in five consecutive months.
- Arsenal have failed to score in only one of their last nine matches.
- Athletic average 1 goal per game at home, while Arsenal average 1.4 goals per game away.
Probable lineups
- Athletic Bilbao: Simón, Paredes, Vivian, Areso, Berchiche, Prados, Vesga, Sancet, I. Williams, Berenguer, Guruzeta.
- Arsenal: Raya, Calafiori, Gabriel, Mosquera, Timber, Zubimendi, Rice, Merino, Eze, Madueke, Gyökeres.
H2H
The teams met quite recently. In a pre-season friendly, Arsenal defeated Athletic 3-0.
Prediction
San Mamés is traditionally one of the toughest stadiums in Europe for visiting teams, and Athletic will surely look to start aggressively. However, Arsenal have a higher-quality squad and are capable of exploiting the space left by the Basques’ pressing. My pick: Arsenal (draw no bet).
