AEK Larnaca vs Legia Warsaw prediction, H2H and probable lineups — August 7, 2025
On August 7, 2025, the first leg of the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round will see AEK Larnaca face off against Legia Warsaw. Kick-off is scheduled for 18:30 Central European Time. Let’s take a look at a bet on the teams’ goal-scoring potential in this clash.
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca enjoyed a successful campaign last season, finishing fourth in the Cypriot league and capturing the national cup after defeating reigning champions Pafos in the final. This triumph earned them a ticket to the Europa League. Their qualifying journey began against Serbia’s Partizan: a 1-0 home win, a 0-1 away defeat, and a penalty shootout victory saw them through. In the second round, the Cypriots faced Slovenia’s Celje — a 1-1 draw away and a 2-1 home win secured their spot in the next round.
The Cypriot domestic league hasn’t kicked off yet, so AEK have been fully focused on European competition, displaying impressive form. During the offseason, they went unbeaten in three friendlies, and in qualifying, they’ve won three of four encounters. Over their last seven games, their only defeat came away to Partizan in Belgrade.
Last season, the team’s European campaign was more modest, exiting early after losing to Hungary’s Paks 0-5 on aggregate in the second round of the Conference League qualifiers. However, this season, AEK have clearly stepped up and look significantly more competitive on the international stage.
Legia Warsaw
Legia Warsaw, like their upcoming opponents, qualified for Europe by winning their domestic cup. Last season, they finished only fifth in the Polish league, which wasn’t enough for direct European qualification, but they secured the cup by edging Pogon Szczecin 4-3 in the final. Legia kicked off the new season with another trophy — they beat Lech Poznan 2-1 in the Polish Super Cup.
On the European stage, Legia also impressed: last season they reached the Conference League quarterfinals, losing to eventual winners Chelsea 2-4 on aggregate. In this campaign, Legia started with confident wins over Kazakhstan’s Aktobe — 1-0 both home and away. Next up was Czech side Ostrava: a 2-2 away draw and a comeback 2-1 win at home saw them progress.
The team is in great shape, boasting a ten-match unbeaten streak across league, cup, and friendlies. As for head-to-head history, there’s only one friendly between these clubs, played in 2016, which AEK Larnaca won 1-0.
Probable lineups
- AEK Larnaca: Alomerović, Ekpolo, Miličević, Roberge, García, Gustavo, Pons, Roden, Chacon, Angelski, Ivanović.
- Legia Warsaw: Tobiasz, Wszołek, Ziółkowski, Kapuadi, Vinagre, Kapustka, Augustyniak, Elitim, Bichakhchyan, Nsame, Morishita.
Key facts and head-to-head
- AEK Larnaca are unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 matches.
- 3 of AEK Larnaca’s last 4 games have gone under 2.5 total goals.
- Legia are unbeaten in their last 10 games.
- Legia have won 4 of their last 5 away matches.
AEK Larnaca vs Legia Warsaw match prediction
Both teams come into the first leg in fine form, armed with valuable knockout experience from their respective domestic cup triumphs last season. AEK Larnaca have confidently navigated two qualifying rounds, with three of their four matches going under 2.5 goals. Legia are also on a consistent unbeaten run and know how to play solidly on the road, understanding that the home leg could be decisive. Expect a cautious, tightly contested encounter, with both sides aiming to minimize mistakes and keep their hopes alive for the return leg. My tip for this match is under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.74.
