Who will win the German Super Cup? Prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich — 22.08.2026
On Saturday, August 22, 2026, Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund will host the Franz Beckenbauer Super Cup clash between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich. The Bavarians earned their spot as Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal champions for the 2025/26 season, while BVB come in as league runners-up. Kick-off is set for 20:30 Central European Time.
Borussia Dortmund: potent attack, but defensive questions remain
Niko Kovac’s side had a mixed pre-season. Dortmund beat Rot-Weiss Oberhausen (3:1), then lost to Fortuna Düsseldorf (1:2) and Cerezo Osaka (0:1), before securing wins over Tokyo (1:0) and Arsenal (3:2). Their final warm-up against Roma ended in a 2:2 draw.
The match against the Romans highlighted both BVB’s strengths and weaknesses. By the ninth minute, the hosts were already two goals down, but they responded quickly: Julian Ryerson pulled one back, and Serhou Guirassy equalized before half-time. Dortmund have the ability to shift gears and boast significant attacking firepower, but a slow start against Bayern could prove far more costly.
Another concern is their defensive personnel. Emre Can missed the Roma match with a cruciate ligament injury, while Nico Schlotterbeck was sidelined due to an ankle problem. Maximilian Beier, Carney Chukwuemeka, and Waldemar Anton also sat out—though Anton’s absence was related to load management. As a result, Kovac will likely have to finalize his backline only shortly before the Super Cup.
There is, however, a new option in midfield: on August 18, Borussia officially announced the signing of Joey Veerman from PSV. Still, the newcomer will have precious little time to adapt to his new club’s demands ahead of the Bayern showdown.
Bayern Munich: late return of leaders does not hinder their winning ways
The main talking point for Bayern’s preparation is the World Cup: Harry Kane, Michael Olise, and Dayot Upamecano only resumed full training with the squad on August 17. Kane himself has admitted that his Super Cup minutes will depend on his match fitness.
Nevertheless, Bayern’s results ahead of their first official fixture are convincing. Vincent Kompany’s team beat Aston Villa 2:1, then RB Leipzig 3:1, and wrapped up their pre-season with a come-from-behind 4:2 victory over Heidenheim on August 18. In that last match, Bayern trailed 1:2 at halftime but turned the game around after the break. Both Kane and Olise clocked their first pre-season minutes.
One separate issue is Jamal Musiala’s condition. After two incidents of loss of consciousness during matches against Leipzig and Heidenheim, the midfielder was diagnosed with a neurological disorder. As of August 19, Musiala’s participation in the Super Cup cannot be considered certain, so it would be risky to base any predictions on his inclusion in the starting XI.
Projected starting lineups
- Borussia Dortmund: Kobel — Anton, Mane, Bensebaini — Ryerson, Nmecha, Bellingham, Svensson — Karetsas, Inacio — Guirassy.
- Bayern Munich: Neuer — Stanisic, Upamecano, Tah, Davies — Kimmich, Pavlovic — Olise, Saibari, Luis Diaz — Kane.
The main intrigue for the hosts lies in central defense, where the absence of Schlotterbeck and Can drastically limits Niko Kovac’s options. For Bayern, the bigger question is how playing time will be distributed among the players who returned late from the World Cup. Jamal Musiala’s situation also demands attention: after a second loss of consciousness in a matter of days, he revealed his neurological diagnosis, making his appearance in the starting lineup increasingly unlikely.
Key facts ahead of the match
- Bayern won both Bundesliga meetings with Dortmund in the 2025/26 season: 2:1 in Munich and 3:2 at Signal Iduna Park.
- The Bavarians have won all three of their most recent friendlies, scoring nine goals in the process.
- Dortmund conceded two goals to Roma in the opening nine minutes of their final pre-season match.
- The hosts are still grappling with absences in the heart of defense, while Kane, Olise, and Upamecano are all back at Kompany’s disposal.
Bayern’s class should prove decisive: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich prediction
Home advantage and a more integrated pre-season make Dortmund a dangerous opponent. Additionally, Bayern’s late reintegration of key players after the World Cup means Kompany’s side are unlikely to be at their physical peak just yet.
But the hosts face a more pressing issue: their defensive frailties. Roma showed just how costly early mistakes can be for BVB, and further personnel losses only limit Kovac’s options. Against Bayern—a side that, even below full strength, dispatched Aston Villa, Leipzig, and Heidenheim—any space or slip-ups will be punished far more ruthlessly.
Bayern won both Klassikers last season, secured a domestic double, and come into the Super Cup riding a wave of strong results. With odds above 1.60, backing them to win in regulation looks the most logical play.
Prediction: Bayern Munich to win in regular time (Away win) — odds 1.65.
