Rotation, top spot and goal-scoring intrigue: prediction for Norway vs France - 26.06.2026
The third-round World Cup clash between Norway and France will be held on June 26 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Both sides have already accomplished their primary goal by securing a spot in the round of 16, but this head-to-head encounter will decide who finishes the group stage in first place.
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Norway: Already in the playoffs, but defensive concerns remain
Norway is enjoying one of the most thrilling tournaments in its modern history. After a 4-1 win over Iraq, Ståle Solbakken's squad edged Senegal 3-2, with Erling Haaland's brace proving decisive in a match where the opposition dramatically improved after the break.
However, Norway's defensive vulnerabilities persist. The team has now conceded in four straight matches and has kept a clean sheet just once in its last nine outings - against Switzerland. With likely squad rotation ahead of the playoffs, this issue could become even more pronounced.
Solbakken is almost certain to rest some key players. After a grueling battle with Senegal, several players suffered from cramps and heavy fatigue, so changes are expected in all areas. Haaland may start on the bench, while Alexander Sørloth and Jørgen Strand-Larsen could feature up front from the opening whistle.
France: Pragmatic favorites who only need a draw
France took care of business against Iraq with minimal fuss - 3-0 - even though the first half was sluggish and the match was interrupted for nearly two hours due to a thunderstorm in Philadelphia. After the break, Didier Deschamps' side quickly ramped up the tempo and had effectively sealed the win by the 66th minute.
Heading into the third round, the French sit above Norway on goal difference, so a draw will keep them in first place. One added twist: Didier Deschamps will be absent, having returned to France following his mother's passing. Assistant coach Guy Stéphan is expected to patrol the touchline.
Les Bleus are also likely to rotate their squad. Theo Hernandez could get the nod at left-back, N’Golo Kanté may anchor the midfield in place of Adrien Rabiot, and the attacking trio could feature Bradley Barcola, Rayan Cherki, and Désiré Doué. Marcus Thuram may lead the line.
Probable lineups
- Norway: Selvik, Møller, Estigår, Ajer, Pedersen, Schjelderup, Berg, Aursnes, Bobb, Strand-Larsen, Sørloth.
- France: Maignan, Gusto, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez, Koné, Kanté, Doué, Cherki, Barcola, Thuram.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Norway has won both opening group matches: 4-1 against Iraq and 3-2 against Senegal.
- France leads the group thanks to a superior goal difference.
- Since 2006, France has not won a third group-stage match at the World Cup.
Goals look more likely than caution: Norway vs France prediction
Both teams have already booked their places in the knockout stage, so motivation is no longer at its peak: first place is important, but not enough to risk key players ahead of the round of 16. Norway's priority will be restoring its core squad, while France will be more than happy with a draw.
However, Norway's defensive rotation could hand France plenty of attacking opportunities, and even without Haaland from the start, the "Vikings" still pack plenty of punch up front. Given both teams' scoring streaks and the overall tone of the match, expect both sides to find the net and the game to be an open, high-scoring affair.
