Liverpool vs Atletico: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — September 17, 2025
On September 17, 2025, the opening round of the UEFA Champions League group stage will see Liverpool face Atletico Madrid. Kick-off is scheduled for 21:00 Central European Time. Let's break down the odds and pick a winner for this highly anticipated clash.
Liverpool
Liverpool enter their first group stage fixture of the Champions League in outstanding form. The season kicked off with a Super Cup match, where the Reds narrowly lost to Crystal Palace in a penalty shootout. However, in the Premier League, Arne Slot's side have been flawless: four matches played, four wins. This perfect run puts Liverpool top of the league with 12 points and a goal difference of 9:4. Their last two outings have been especially pragmatic — grinding out 1-0 victories over Arsenal at home and Burnley away.
Last season in the Champions League, Liverpool's journey ended in the Round of 16, where they fell to eventual champions PSG. Nonetheless, they dominated the group stage, finishing top with 21 points from eight games.
As for head-to-head encounters with Atletico Madrid at Anfield, the stats favor Liverpool. In their last four home meetings, the English side claimed three wins and one draw, with both teams scoring in three of those four matches.
Atletico
Atletico Madrid have had a rocky start to the current La Liga campaign. The team lost their opener to Espanyol, then played out two draws against Elche and Alaves. Only in their most recent home fixture, against fellow Champions League side Villarreal, did Atletico finally notch a convincing 2-0 victory. As it stands, Diego Simeone's men sit 11th in the table with five points.
In last season's Champions League, Atletico Madrid finished fifth in their group with 18 points, bowing out in the playoffs after losing to Real Madrid 3-2 on aggregate.
Regarding their direct duels with Liverpool, the English side have won the last three consecutive meetings. Atletico's last win over Liverpool came at home back in 2020, and they've yet to taste victory at Anfield.
Probable lineups
- Liverpool: Alisson, Szoboszlai, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, Ekitike.
- Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Ruggeri, Simeone, Barrios, Koke, Gonzalez, Griezmann, Alvarez.
Key facts and head-to-head record
- Liverpool have won seven of their last eight matches.
- Liverpool have won five of their last six home games.
- Atletico are unbeaten in five of their last six matches.
- Both teams have scored in three of Atletico’s last four games.
- Liverpool have won three of the last four head-to-head matches.
- Four of the last five meetings between these sides have ended with under 2.5 goals.
Liverpool vs Atletico prediction
Liverpool approach the start of the Champions League in top form and look far more confident than Atletico at this stage of the season. The Reds have also been impressively consistent at home. While Atletico finally picked up a convincing win in their latest match, their league form has been shaky. Historically, Liverpool have dominated recent head-to-heads. All signs point to Liverpool as clear favorites at Anfield in this opening group stage clash. My pick: Liverpool to win at odds of 1.63.
