Can Lewandowski lead Poland to a winning start? Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction – 25.09.2026
Poland will host Bosnia and Herzegovina on Friday, September 25, 2026, in the opening round of the UEFA Nations League. The Group B4 encounter will take place at the PGE Narodowy in Warsaw, with kick-off scheduled for 20:45 Central European Time. Both teams are looking to make a strong start in a competitive group that also includes Sweden and Romania, with promotion to League A the ultimate objective.
Poland: Lewandowski returns as Urban looks for a fresh start
Poland enter the new Nations League campaign determined to recover from a disappointing first half of 2026. Jan Urban's side missed out on the World Cup after suffering a 3-2 defeat to Sweden in their qualification play-off final on March 31.
Their subsequent international friendlies did little to improve the mood. Poland lost 2-0 to Ukraine before drawing 2-2 with Nigeria in Warsaw on June 3, extending their winless run to three matches.
Defensive reliability remains an important concern. Poland conceded seven goals across those three fixtures, highlighting the need for greater concentration and better protection in front of their back line.
However, the return of Robert Lewandowski provides a significant attacking boost.
The experienced striker has been included in Urban's squad and is expected to lead the attack. His ability to hold up possession, find space inside the penalty area and convert limited opportunities could be decisive against a Bosnian defence that struggled against stronger opponents during the summer.
Piotr Zieliński and Sebastian Szymański offer creativity in midfield, while Nicola Zalewski and Jakub Kamiński provide additional attacking options. At the back, Jan Bednarek and Jakub Kiwior remain important figures in Urban's plans.
Poland must nevertheless deal with several personnel setbacks. Goalkeeper Kamil Grabara, midfielder Filip Rózga and forward Adrian Benedyczak have withdrawn from the squad because of injuries. Bartłomiej Drągowski and Marcel Reguła have subsequently received additional call-ups.
Despite those absences, Poland possess sufficient attacking quality to put Bosnia under sustained pressure, particularly with the support of the home crowd.
Bosnia and Herzegovina: World Cup experience meets significant selection problems
Bosnia and Herzegovina arrive in Warsaw following a historic World Cup campaign in North America.
Sergej Barbarez's team reached the knockout stage after drawing 1-1 with Canada, losing 4-1 to Switzerland and defeating Qatar 3-1 in the group stage. Their tournament eventually ended with a 2-0 defeat to the United States in the Round of 32.
Although the Bosnians failed to progress further, their performances demonstrated that they can compete against strong international opposition.
Their qualification campaign had already provided evidence of their resilience. Bosnia eliminated Wales and Italy in the European play-offs, winning both encounters on penalties to secure their World Cup place.
Nevertheless, defensive consistency remains a concern. The Dragons conceded eight goals in four World Cup matches and kept no clean sheets throughout the tournament.
Barbarez also faces several selection difficulties ahead of the trip to Warsaw.
Amar Dedić and Kenan Busuladžić are unavailable because of injuries, while young attacking midfielder Kerim Alajbegović suffered a hip problem during club duty. Although he joined the national team's training camp, he did not participate in the opening training session on September 21.
Edin Džeko also missed that session, leaving some uncertainty about his immediate preparations for the match.
The veteran striker remains a major attacking asset, but Ermedin Demirović and Haris Tabaković provide Barbarez with alternative options in the final third. Esmir Bajraktarević offers pace and technical ability, while Sead Kolašinac and Tarik Muharemović bring experience and physical strength to the defensive line.
Bosnia are capable of threatening Poland on the counterattack, but their defensive record and personnel problems could become particularly important against an opponent with Lewandowski leading the attack.
Match facts and head-to-head record
- Poland are winless in their last three international matches, conceding seven goals.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina conceded eight goals in four matches at the 2026 World Cup.
- Poland won both previous Nations League meetings between the teams in 2020, recording a 2-1 away victory and a 3-0 home win.
- Lewandowski scored twice in the 3-0 victory over Bosnia in October 2020.
- Bosnia have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches.
Home advantage and attacking quality could make the difference: Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction
Poland's recent results suggest that this will not necessarily be a comfortable evening for Jan Urban's team. Their defensive problems remain unresolved, and Bosnia have enough attacking quality to exploit mistakes, particularly when Demirović or Džeko receive service in dangerous areas.
However, the hosts have several factors working in their favour.
Lewandowski's return provides Poland with a reliable focal point in attack, while Zieliński and Szymański should be capable of creating opportunities against a Bosnian defence that conceded regularly during the World Cup.
The visitors' personnel problems could also complicate Barbarez's plans. The absence of Dedić reduces his defensive options, while uncertainty surrounding Alajbegović's fitness may limit the team's attacking flexibility.
Poland have a strong historical record against Bosnia and will have the opportunity to impose themselves from the opening whistle in Warsaw.
Although the visitors should be competitive and may create scoring opportunities of their own, Poland's attacking resources, home advantage and greater depth in several key positions make a narrow home victory the preferred outcome.
Prediction: Poland to win.
