Final rehearsal before the playoff start: Prediction for Minnesota Lynx vs Indiana Fever
Minnesota Lynx
Indiana Fever
Minnesota Lynx and Indiana Fever will face each other in the early hours of Friday, September 25, as part of the WNBA regular season. The game will take place in Minneapolis, with tip-off scheduled for 02:00 Central European Time. I am backing a winner in this matchup.
H2H and statistical facts
- Minnesota finished as the best team in the regular season.
- The Lynx have won just one of their last four games.
- Indiana have won two consecutive road games.
- The last three regular-season meetings between these teams on the Lynx's home court ended in victories for the hosts.
Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota are enjoying one of the best regular seasons in franchise history. The team enters its final game of the season with a 32-11 record and sits atop the overall standings. The Lynx have already secured the status of the regular-season's best team and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. However, ending the season with a home win after the unexpectedly heavy defeat to Indiana will surely be one of the team's priorities.
At the same time, Minnesota's recent results have been mixed. The Lynx have won just once in their last five games, suffering four defeats. Before the setback in Indianapolis, the team defeated Connecticut Sun 101-89, having previously fallen to New York Liberty 93-81. This run stands in contrast to their otherwise impressive season and shows that the team has been less consistent down the stretch of the regular season than it was several months ago.
One of the key factors behind the Lynx's current position has been the play of Olivia Miles. The point guard is enjoying an outstanding rookie season, averaging 19.8 points and 6 assists per game. However, her absence was one of the main reasons for Minnesota's struggles in the most recent meeting with Indiana: Miles missed the game with a calf injury. Her status for the rematch remains uncertain, so the lineup situation will be hugely important for the Lynx.
Overall, the Lynx score around 91 points per game, shoot at a high percentage and remain one of the most balanced teams in the league. But without Miles in the last head-to-head matchup, Minnesota lacked its usual offensive organization, while after halftime the coaching staff significantly reduced the playing time of its key players.
- Also read: Africa Cup of Nations: Egypt vs Angola. Prediction for the qualification match on September 25
Indiana Fever
Indiana enter the rematch in considerably stronger form. The Fever have won four of their last five games and own a 28-15 record. They sit fifth in the overall standings, and with all eight playoff participants already determined, their main objective down the stretch is to improve their position ahead of the postseason. Indiana still have a chance to fight for fourth place and home-court advantage in the first round.
The most telling performance came in the previous meeting with Minnesota. The Fever virtually killed off the contest in the first half, taking a 57-34 lead into the break. The team allowed its opponents to close the gap in the third quarter, but pulled away again late on to win 96-77. For Indiana, this was more than just a victory over the league leaders—it was confirmation of how dangerous the team looks offensively at the end of the regular season.
The star of that game was Caitlin Clark. The guard scored 27 points, added 9 assists and 7 rebounds, and went 9-for-18 from the field. Clark is averaging 22.8 points per game this season, and her ability to create opportunities both for herself and her teammates makes the Fever's offense especially versatile. However, her status ahead of the rematch requires attention: preliminary reports list her as questionable because of back problems.
Kelsey Mitchell's contribution is no less important. She scored 20 points in the latest game against Minnesota, extending her streak to 27 consecutive games with at least 20 points—a new WNBA record. Aliyah Boston added 17 points and 7 rebounds, while Indiana are averaging 96.7 points per game and rank among the league's highest-scoring teams. Over their last ten games, the Fever are 7-3 and averaging 98.1 points.
What should you bet on?
The rematch promises to be far more competitive than the game in Indianapolis. Minnesota are at home and will surely look to respond after the heavy defeat, but Olivia Miles' absence could once again seriously affect the quality of their offense. Indiana, by contrast, are in full stride and have won four of their last five games. I expect a hard-fought contest in which Indiana maintain their high-scoring form, but Minnesota, powered by home-court advantage and a more motivated performance from their key players, will be able to avenge that defeat. My prediction is a Lynx win with a +8-point handicap.
