Warm-up before the playoffs: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces prediction
Phoenix Mercury
Las Vegas Aces
Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces will meet in the early hours of Friday, September 25, in the WNBA regular season, with tip-off set for 04:00 CET. I am backing a winner in this game.
Head-to-head and statistical facts
- The Aces are riding a six-game winning streak.
- Phoenix have won their last two home games.
- The Mercury have been unable to beat the Aces at home since 2021.
- The Aces have won 11 consecutive away games against Phoenix.
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix enter their final regular-season game with a record of 16 wins and 27 losses. The team lost its mathematical chance of reaching the playoffs long ago, so the remaining games are primarily about ending the season on a positive note and assessing the condition of key players.
At the same time, the team has won three of its last five games, pointing to a noticeable improvement in its results down the regular-season stretch. In their most recent games, the Mercury defeated Portland Fire 94:91. It was a hard-fought win, but the team held its nerve down the stretch and preserved its lead. Phoenix then also beat Dallas Wings, though they had lost to Dallas in their head-to-head meeting the day before.
Overall, the results of recent weeks show that the Mercury can cause problems for opponents even without any playoff race motivation. Phoenix's main offensive force remains Kahleah Copper. This season, she is averaging 21.6 points per game while spending nearly 33 minutes on the court.
The Mercury's biggest problem and the main reason for their struggles remains their overall offensive efficiency. The team averages 84.4 points per game and has a negative points differential.
- Also read: Africa Cup of Nations: Egypt vs Angola. Prediction for the qualification match on September 25
Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas come into the game in significantly more impressive form. The Aces have won six straight and currently own a record of 30 wins and 13 losses. The team has already secured its place in the playoffs and currently sits third in the standings, behind only Minnesota Lynx and Golden State Valkyries.
Las Vegas therefore still have plenty to play for: every win down the stretch could matter when it comes to their final playoff seeding. The Aces' latest run has been particularly convincing. They beat Seattle Storm twice in a row, winning the second meeting 98:77. Earlier, Las Vegas demolished Seattle 114:77 and also comfortably handled Toronto Tempo. This run of results shows just how intense a level the Aces can maintain at the end of the regular season.
Las Vegas' key figure remains A'ja Wilson. The four-time league MVP is enjoying another outstanding season, averaging 26 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. In August, Wilson was once again named the Western Conference Player of the Month, earning the award for the fourth time already this season.
The Aces also hold a significant edge in the team statistics. Las Vegas average 91.3 points per game and allow 85.9, while Phoenix average 84.4 and concede 87.3.
What is the best bet?
On paper, Las Vegas have a clear advantage. The Aces have won six straight, sit among the WNBA's leading teams and remain highly motivated ahead of the playoffs. Phoenix, by contrast, are no longer competing for a postseason spot, and their season-long numbers are noticeably inferior to those of their opponents. If Las Vegas can impose their familiar high tempo from the opening minutes, Phoenix will find it extremely difficult to withstand the pressure for the entire game, but a blowout is not expected. I am backing the home team with a +15-point handicap.
