Leo Peterson
Dailysports's expert
Translated by the editors
On March 25, 2025, the Estadio Municipal in El Alto will host the 14th round of the World Cup qualification match between Bolivia and Uruguay. We're betting on goals in this match.
Bolivia
Bolivia's national team is among the underdogs in the South American qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup, sitting in 7th place in the standings. However, this position still keeps their hopes alive for continuing the fight — the seventh place offers a chance to enter the intercontinental playoffs. Bolivia is 6 points behind the sixth position, which guarantees a direct ticket to the World Cup, making each remaining encounter particularly significant for them.
The main problem for Bolivia is their weak defense. The team has conceded 30 goals in 13 matches, making them the most vulnerable defensively in this qualifying cycle. On average, the Bolivians concede more than two goals per game, and their recent 1-3 away loss to Peru only confirmed this trend.
However, at home, Bolivia shows a completely different game. The altitude of the stadium in El Alto (about 4095 meters above sea level) traditionally poses serious challenges for opponents. In their last four home matches, the team has secured three wins and one draw, which accounts for the lion's share of their 13 points. Home matches remain Bolivia's main weapon in the fight for coveted positions, and it is here that the team will try to keep their World Cup hopes alive.
Uruguay
Uruguay's national team confidently sits in 4th place in the standings, enjoying a comfortable 7-point lead over Bolivia. This margin allows Marcelo Bielsa's squad to prepare for the upcoming match without undue pressure. Meanwhile, they trail group leaders Argentina by 8 points, but winning the group is not their primary goal — their main focus is on securing a confident qualification for the 2026 World Cup.
In the previous round, Uruguay suffered a narrow defeat to Argentina (0-1) at home, showcasing a lackluster performance in attack. Throughout the match, the team created only 0.19 xG, barely threatening the opponent's goal. Nevertheless, Uruguay remains a formidable force, especially against teams from the lower part of the table, and will aim to bounce back from their setback, even though there is no critical need to secure points at any cost.
Probable lineups
- Bolivia: Viscarra, Sagredo, Morales, Akin, Medina, Villamil, Cuéllar, Vaca, Miguelito, Fernandez, Algaranaz
- Uruguay: Rochet, Nández, Oliveira, Jiménez, Araújo, Valverde, Bentancur, De Arrascaeta, Pellistri, Araújo, Núñez
Match facts and H2H
- In the last four matches involving Bolivia, the bet on "total over 2.5" has consistently won.
- Bolivia feels particularly confident at home — they have scored in seven consecutive home games.
- For Uruguay, the situation is the opposite. In the last eight matches, only once have more than two goals been scored.
- In the first leg, Uruguay left Bolivia no chance, thrashing them 5-0 on home soil.
- Interestingly, in the last four head-to-head encounters, the bet on "total over 2.5" has consistently won. However, only in one of those matches did both teams manage to score.
Prediction
Bolivia needs points as much as air — any slip-up could cost them their chances of advancing to the next stage. However, Uruguay, despite their comfortable position in the standings, will surely take the field eager to redeem themselves after their meek loss to Argentina. In such a scenario, the bet "both teams to score" at odds of 1.88 looks quite appealing.
