Atletico Madrid vs Union Saint-Gilloise prediction, H2H and probable lineups — November 4, 2025
As part of the fourth round of the UEFA Champions League group stage, Atletico will face Belgian side Union Saint-Gilloise. The match is set to take place in Madrid on Tuesday, November 4. Kick-off is scheduled for 21:00 Central European Time. I’m offering a bet on the winner of this clash.
Match preview
Atletico Madrid kicked off the 2025/26 season with a solid run in La Liga. After a shaky start to the new campaign, Los Colchoneros returned to their usual level and, after 11 rounds, occupy fourth place in the standings.
Under Diego Simeone, the team maintains its trademark defensive toughness, but this season there’s also a noticeable boost in attacking prowess—striker Julian Alvarez, for example, has already netted eight goals and provided four assists in 13 matches.
Despite this progress, Atletico haven’t yet found their rhythm in European competition: in the Champions League, the team has managed one win and suffered two defeats. They beat Eintracht Frankfurt at home but failed to pick up points on the road against Liverpool and Arsenal.
Atletico are showing improvement in attack: average goal output has increased, and the team is creating more chances in the box. Defensively, questions remain: while the back line is stable, Simeone’s side often has to work hard to hold onto a lead, especially against attacking opponents. However, at home, Atletico look more confident and dictate the tempo of the game.
Union Saint-Gilloise enter this match as reigning Belgian champions for the 2024/25 season, carrying strong momentum into the 2025/26 campaign. After 13 league matches, they’ve amassed 32 points and sit atop the domestic table.
In the Jupiler Pro League, Union’s players display organized football: solid ball-winning, careful possession, and the ability to regroup quickly in defense. The team boasts 28 goals scored and only 7 conceded—the best record in the league on both counts.
However, their European exploits have been less impressive so far. In the Champions League, Union pulled off a shock win over PSV, but then suffered back-to-back 0-4 defeats to Newcastle and Inter. This highlights that, despite their domestic success, Union are not yet competing at the required level on the continental stage.
Overall, Union Saint-Gilloise are a well-drilled side, but have yet to reach the heights of Europe’s elite—a factor likely to be decisive in this upcoming clash.
Match facts
- Atletico have kept clean sheets in two consecutive matches.
- The Spanish side have won their last six home games.
- Union are on a three-match winning streak.
- The Belgian team have lost just once away from home in the past six months.
- Atletico average 2.3 goals per home game, while Union average 1.5 goals per away game.
Probable lineups
- Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Llorente, Gimenez, Le Normand, Hancko, Simeone, Baena, Koke, Almada, Griezmann, Alvarez.
- Union Saint-Gilloise: Scherpen, Mac Allister, Burgess, Sykes, Halaili, Rasmussen, Zorgane, Van de Perre, Rodriguez, Aït El Hadj, Jiger.
H2H
The clubs have never met before.
Prediction
Atletico have every chance to extend their winning streak and climb further up the group standings. Simeone’s side control games with authority and rarely allow opponents space. Union are likely to play on the counter, but even so, the hosts have more than enough firepower to secure a positive result. My bet: Atletico to win with a -1.5 goal handicap.
