A two-goal lead won't make Ajax sit back: prediction for Ajax vs Sion — 27.08.2026
On Thursday, August 27, the Johan Cruyff Arena will host the second leg of the UEFA Conference League playoff qualifier between Ajax and Sion. The Amsterdam side return home with a solid 4-2 advantage from Switzerland, so the hosts just need to manage the result intelligently. For Sion, the scenario is the opposite: the Swiss need to overcome a two-goal deficit, which means they can't afford to sit back and play defensively for long. The winner of this two-legged tie will advance to the main stage of the tournament.
Ajax: Michel’s attack continues to deliver chances
The first leg proved much more challenging for Ajax than the 4-2 final scoreline suggests. Sion opened the scoring through Frank Surde and went into halftime ahead. However, after the break, the Dutch side shifted gears: Julian Brandt, Marcos Leonardo, Tolu Arokodare, and Davy Klaassen all found the net. Notably, after the hosts leveled at 2-2 from the penalty spot, it took Ajax just a few minutes to regain the lead.
Michel Sánchez’s team is showing remarkable consistency in front of goal. In their last seven official matches, Ajax have scored at least twice in every game: 4-1 and 4-1 against Vojvodina, 3-1 and 2-2 against Shelbourne, 2-0 vs PEC, 2-2 with Heerenveen, and now 4-2 over Sion. Especially telling is the fact that Ajax won both previous home games in this Conference League qualifying campaign by at least two goals.
In Switzerland, the starting lineup featured Marc-André ter Stegen, Anton Gaaei, Aaron Baumann, Jorrel Hato, Caio Henrique, Yari Reger, Klaassen, Brandt, Steven Berghuis, Marcos Leonardo, and Oscar Gloukh. Marcos Leonardo scored his first official goal for the club, while substitute Arokodare found the net just 43 seconds after coming on.
Before the first leg, Daley Blind, Ko Itakura, Maher Carrizo, and Don-Angelo Konadu were not included in the squad. Meanwhile, Josip Sutalo has returned to the team, and new signing Jofre Torrents made the squad for the first time. The official squad list for the second leg as of August 22 has not yet been published, so final conclusions about squad availability are premature.
Sion: playing cautiously is no longer an option
Before facing Ajax, Didier Tolo’s side successfully navigated two qualifying rounds. First, they saw off BATE — 1-1 away and 4-0 at home — then eliminated Noah with results of 2-2 and 2-1. Shortly before the match with Ajax, Sion also crushed Kerzers 6-1 in the Swiss Cup.
And in the first leg against Ajax, the Swiss proved they can trouble the favorites. In the tenth minute, Winsley Boteli hit the post, Surde opened the scoring, and just before halftime ter Stegen made a key save after a chance from Numa Lavanchi. In other words, the final 2-4 scoreline doesn’t mean Sion spent the whole evening merely defending.
Now, however, their task is much tougher. If the game is level, Sion are out, so as time ticks on the visitors will have to push their defensive line higher and take more risks. That kind of football should give Ajax’s quick, technical players far more space than they had at the start of the first match.
The only confirmed absentee for Sion before the first leg was defender Berat Hajrizi, who missed out due to injury. As of now, the club hasn’t reported any new significant injuries for the return leg.
Possible lineups
- Ajax: ter Stegen — Gaaei, Baumann, Hato, Caio Henrique — Reger, Klaassen, Brandt — Berghuis, Marcos Leonardo, Gloukh.
- Sion: Racioppi — Lavanchi, Sow, Kronig, Hefti — Kabakalman, Baltazar Costa — Shouaref, Boteli, Surde — Nivokazi.
The predicted lineups are based on the starting elevens from the first leg; changes are possible, especially for Ajax, ahead of the return match.
Match facts
- Ajax won the first leg 4-2.
- The Amsterdam side have scored at least two goals in each of their last seven official matches.
- Ajax beat Vojvodina 4-1 and Shelbourne 3-1 in their two home games of the current Conference League qualifiers.
- Sion have scored in every one of their five European matches this campaign.
- Neither side has played a first-team fixture between the first and second legs: the official club calendars list this August 27 match as their next game.
Sion’s need to take risks should play into the hosts’ hands: prediction for Ajax vs Sion
The main argument against a big handicap is obvious: after a 4-2 away win, Ajax have no need to thrash their opponent. The Amsterdam club can control the tempo and focus above all on securing their place in the main stage.
However, Sion’s situation makes the hosts’ handicap an intriguing bet. The visitors can’t settle for a cautious 0-0 or 1-1 — they must chase a significant deficit. The longer the aggregate score favors Ajax, the more space the Swiss will have to leave at the back.
The first leg already highlighted the difference in finishing quality: once the game opened up after halftime, Ajax scored four times. At home, Michel’s side consistently create a high volume of chances, and Brandt, Gloukh, Berghuis, Marcos Leonardo, and Arokodare offer the coach several attacking options.
Prediction: Ajax handicap (-1.5).
