One step away from qualification. What does South Africa need to reach the World Cup?

The South African national team is on the verge of playing at the World Cup for the first time in 16 years. As the qualifying tournament nears its end, much depends on Bafana Bafana, and here are the scenarios that must fall into place for the team to make the trip to North America.

South Africa could secure their World Cup spot as early as matchday eight of the qualifiers. For that to happen, they must beat Nigeria, and Benin must drop points against Lesotho in the parallel fixture.

However, there's also a scenario where South Africa can qualify even with a draw against Nigeria. For this to happen, Benin would need to lose to Lesotho. In FIFA qualifiers, it’s not head-to-head results but goal difference that counts, and right now, Bafana Bafana hold the advantage (+8 compared to Benin’s 0).

For Benin to overtake South Africa, they would need to win, while South Africa would have to lose both remaining matches by a combined margin of eight or more goals. Given that Bafana Bafana have conceded only five goals in the entire qualifying campaign and Benin have scored just seven, this scenario looks highly improbable.

A loss to Nigeria combined with a Benin victory would put Bafana Bafana in a precarious position. South Africa would remain on 16 points, Benin would move up to 14, and Nigeria would have 13. This would mean that World Cup qualification and playoff spots would be decided in the October international window.

However, all these permutations are further complicated by the lack of a FIFA ruling on the South Africa vs Lesotho match, in which Bafana Bafana fielded Teboho Mokoena, who was ineligible to play. According to the rules, the team should be handed a 0-3 technical defeat and have three points deducted, but no official decision has yet been made.