Sweden vs Poland: Prediction and probable lineups: March 31, 2026
Sunday evening in Solna at the Friends Arena marks the climax of a four-year cycle for Sweden and Poland. The World Cup 2026 playoff final offers one of the last four tickets to North America. The winner will join Group F alongside the Netherlands, Japan, and Tunisia, while the loser will miss out on the biggest tournament on the planet.
See also: Czechia vs Denmark prediction and betting tips 31 Мarch 2026
Match preview
Sweden, led by Graham Potter, confidently dispatched Ukraine in the semifinal (3-1). The star of that match was Viktor Gyökeres: the Arsenal forward netted a hat-trick, reaffirming his status as one of Europe's most dangerous strikers. The Swedes play an intense, high-pressing game, which becomes even more effective with the backing of their home crowd. However, Potter faces significant defensive concerns: Isak Hien and Gabriel Gudmundsson picked up injuries in the last game and are doubtful. Sweden hasn't lost at home to Poland since 1930, a historic stat that boosts the hosts’ confidence.
Jan Urban's Poland reached the final by showing great character against Albania (2-1). After conceding first, the "White Eagles" fought back to win thanks to goals from long-time leaders Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zieliński. Urban remains unbeaten as head coach (7 matches), and his side plays pragmatic but effective football. A big boost for the visitors is the return of Nicola Zalewski from suspension. Poland has fond memories of the 2022 playoff final when they beat Sweden 2-0, and they’ll be keen to repeat that feat—despite the bookmakers casting them as underdogs.
Tactically, this match shapes up as Sweden’s rapid attack against Poland’s disciplined mid-block. The Swedes will look for space for Gyökeres, while the Poles will aim to crowd the midfield and rely on Lewandowski’s experience to convert any rare opportunities.
Probable lineups
Sweden: Nordfeldt — Lagerbielke, Starfelt, Lindelöf, Augustinsson — Johansson, Ayari, Karlström, Nygren — Elanga, Gyökeres
Poland: Grabara — Kędziora, Bednarek, Kiwior — Zieliński, Szymański — Cash, Zalewski — Kamiński, Pietuszewski — Lewandowski
Match facts & head-to-head
- Four wins for Sweden and one for Poland in the last five meetings
- Sweden have won just one of their last seven encounters, conceding in every match
- Poland are unbeaten in seven matches: five wins and two draws
Prediction
Despite the high stakes, I expect a fiercely contested game with plenty of chances and goals. My prediction: over 2 goals at 1.7
