Real Madrid vs Villarreal preview, H2H and probable lineups — October 4, 2025
On October 4, 2025, the Santiago Bernabéu will host the 8th round clash of the Spanish La Liga, as Real Madrid welcomes Villarreal. Kick-off is scheduled for 21:00 Central European Time. Let’s break down the best value bet for goals in this high-stakes matchup.
Real Madrid
Los Blancos come into their encounter with Villarreal riding high after a commanding 5-0 Champions League victory over Kairat, their second consecutive European win, cementing their hold on second place in the group with six points.
However, in La Liga, Real suffered a painful blow last round, losing the derby to Atlético 2-5. That defeat snapped a seven-match winning streak and saw them surrender the league lead to Barcelona, falling a point behind their archrivals. Despite that setback, Real’s home form this season has been nothing short of dominant—they’ve won every match at the Santiago Bernabéu, keeping two clean sheets and conceding twice.
Home meetings with Villarreal have traditionally favored Madrid: in the last seven matches at the Bernabéu, Real have claimed five wins, drawn once, and lost only once. These fixtures are often high-scoring, with both teams finding the net in five of the last seven encounters.
Villarreal
Villarreal are also competing in the Champions League, though their early campaign has been less than inspiring. In their opening group game, the Yellow Submarine lost 0-1 away to Tottenham in a lackluster display, but bounced back with a much stronger showing at home against Juventus. Villarreal dominated the first half and could have scored more, but squandered their chances, then conceded twice early in the second half. Nevertheless, they showed resilience to claw back a 2-2 draw.
In La Liga, following a brief slump where they went two matches without a win, Villarreal have turned things around, stringing together three consecutive victories. Still, their away form leaves something to be desired: just one win, one draw, and two defeats from four road games.
As for their head-to-head record with Real, Villarreal’s last win in Madrid came back in 2023 at the Bernabéu, a 3-2 thriller. But in the four most recent meetings with Los Blancos, the Yellow Submarine are winless—losing three times and drawing once.
Probable lineups
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Fran García, Raúl Asensio, Heysen, Carreras, Valverde, Tchouaméni, Vinicius, Bellingham, Güler, Mbappé.
- Villarreal: Luis Junior, Cardona, Marín, Veiga, Mourinho, Parejo, Partey, Guye, Buchanan, Mikautadze, Pepe.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Real Madrid have won 10 of their last 11 matches.
- Real Madrid have won 12 of their last 13 home matches.
- Real Madrid have scored first in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Villarreal have won 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Both teams have scored in 3 of Villarreal’s last 4 matches.
- Real Madrid have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head clashes.
- Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head encounters.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal prediction
Both sides enter this showdown in strong form. Real have looked convincing in the early stages of the season, suffering just one league defeat so far, and consistently producing attacking football—scoring freely but occasionally vulnerable at the back. Villarreal, meanwhile, are on a four-match unbeaten run and have found their rhythm domestically. Head-to-head history favors Real, especially at home, where they hold a clear advantage. Still, these matches almost always deliver open play and goals at both ends. My tip for this game: both teams to score, with odds set at 1.58.
