Polish sting or Dutch response? Prediction for Netherlands (W) vs Poland (W) - 09.06.2026
Netherlands (W)
Poland (W)
One of the Women's World Cup qualification matches will take place on Tuesday at the Asito Stadium in Almelo, where the Netherlands will face off against Poland. The Dutch need a convincing result to close out the group stage after a painful defeat to Ireland, while the Polish team, already almost free from tournament pressure, can afford to play bolder and once again cause problems for the favorite.
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Netherlands control possession, but lose focus at the back
The Netherlands have had an inconsistent qualifying campaign: they managed to beat France and Ireland, but then started dropping points more often, and in the last round lost 2-3 to Ireland. What’s particularly worrying for Andries Jonker is that even with overwhelming possession, his team doesn’t always maintain the right balance between attack and defense.
The Dutch remain strong in positional football: a high passing volume, pressure through the flanks, and the involvement of Dominique Janssen from deep make their attack diverse. But the three-centre-back system leaves space behind the wing-backs, and those very areas were exploited by Poland in the first head-to-head, which ended in a high-scoring 2-2 draw.
Poland live through Pajor and lightning counters
Poland sit bottom of the group, having collected just one point from five games. Their last match against France ended in a 0-2 defeat, but even in that game, Ewa Pajor remained their main threat and registered more shots than any of her teammates.
Poland trail the Netherlands in terms of possession and passing accuracy, so it's unlikely they'll control the ball for long spells. However, Nina Patalon's side has a clear plan for such matches: absorb the pressure, look for Pajor during quick transitions, and punish the opponent for mistakes when pushing their defensive line high. Considering that Poland already scored twice against the Dutch in the first meeting, it would be risky to dismiss their attack.
Match facts and head-to-head
- The first meeting between the Netherlands and Poland in this qualification ended in a 2-2 draw.
- The Netherlands lost to Ireland 2-3 in the last round, despite dominating possession and attacking actively.
- Poland haven't won any of their five group matches, but have already shown they can score against this opponent.
Prediction
The Netherlands are obvious favorites in terms of class, squad depth, and ball control. Jonker’s side should spend most of the match in Poland’s half, create pressure down the flanks, and overload the box with midfield runs. But this is unlikely to be a walk in the park. The Dutch defense has already faltered against both Ireland and Poland, and with Ewa Pajor present, the visitors are dangerous even with limited chances. So, instead of a low return on a straight Dutch win, it makes more sense to look at the goal market.
