Newcastle vs Arsenal prediction, H2H and probable lineups — September 28, 2025
On September 28, 2025, the English Premier League will serve up one of the marquee fixtures of the round as Newcastle United hosts London’s Arsenal at St James’ Park. Kick-off is set for 17:30 Central European Time. Let’s take a closer look at the best bet for team scoring in this matchup.
Newcastle
Newcastle United heads into this clash after a rocky start to the season, but the Magpies managed to snap a two-game winless run with a convincing 4-1 home victory over Bradford City in the EFL Cup, progressing to the next round where they’ll face Tottenham Hotspur. Their league form has been less impressive: in five matches, they’ve drawn three times (all 0-0), edged Wolverhampton 1-0, and lost a five-goal thriller to Liverpool 2-3. In the standings, Newcastle sits 13th with six points. Goal scoring has been an issue: in four of their five league games, the total has been under 2.5 goals.
The Champions League campaign also began with a challenge—a 1-2 home defeat to Barcelona. However, Newcastle’s home record against Arsenal is impressive: in their last five meetings at St James’ Park, they’ve won four times, keeping a clean sheet in each of those victories, and only lost once.
Arsenal
Like Newcastle, Arsenal also featured in the EFL Cup, defeating League One side Port Vale 2-0 to book a spot in the next round against Brighton. The Gunners have enjoyed a much brighter league start: three clean-sheet victories in five games, a hard-fought home draw against Manchester City—snatching a point in the dying minutes—and a narrow 0-1 defeat away to Liverpool. Arsenal currently sit second in the table with a goal difference of 10:2. Notably, their opening fixtures have been tough, with matches against Manchester City, Liverpool, and Manchester United all in the first five rounds.
In the Champions League, Arsenal made a strong start, beating Athletic Bilbao 2-0 away. Head-to-head clashes between Newcastle and Arsenal have been fiercely contested. In the last six encounters, each side has won three times. However, Arsenal have come out on top in the last two meetings.
Probable lineups
- Newcastle: Pope, Trippier, Schär, Livramento, Burn, Bruno Guimarães, Tonali, Joelinton, Murphy, Woltemade, Barnes.
- Arsenal: Raya, Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori, Rice, Zubimendi, Merino, Eze, Madueke, Gyökeres.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Newcastle are unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Arsenal have won 6 of their last 8 games.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 away matches.
- Arsenal have scored first in 6 of their last 8 matches.
- Newcastle have won 4 of their last 5 home head-to-head clashes.
- 8 of the last 10 meetings between Newcastle and Arsenal have seen under 2.5 goals.
- Newcastle have scored first in 4 of their last 5 home head-to-heads.
Newcastle vs Arsenal match prediction
Newcastle approach this home clash against Arsenal in high spirits after a morale-boosting EFL Cup win, which should give the squad extra confidence. Their impressive recent home record against Arsenal also works in their favor. Arsenal, meanwhile, have started the season strongly and remain near the top of the table despite a tough opening schedule. Recent head-to-heads between these sides have been fiercely competitive, with no clear dominance. As such, expect a tense and entertaining match with goals at both ends. My bet for this game: both teams to score at odds of 1.86.
