Legia vs. AEK Larnaca prediction, H2H and probable lineups - August 14, 2025
One of the matches of the Europa League third qualifying round will take place on Thursday at the Polish Army Stadium in Warsaw, where the local side Legia will host Cyprus' AEK Larnaca. After suffering a heavy 1-4 defeat in the first leg, the Poles face an almost impossible task — overturning a three-goal deficit to keep their hopes of reaching the playoff stage alive. I suggest betting on goals in this clash, as the odds look promising.
Match preview
Legia managed a solid first half in the opening leg, keeping the score level, but in the second half, a series of errors led to three conceded goals. Bartosz Kapustka's red card only made matters worse, leaving the team shorthanded at a crucial moment.
This collapse was particularly painful given their strong start to the season, which included a Polish Super Cup win and victories over Aktobe and Banik in earlier qualifying rounds. The second half in Larnaca showed that Legia are not yet ready to consistently handle opponents who excel in attack. Now, under Edward Iordanescu, they will have to go all in, which could make for an entertaining but risky encounter.
AEK Larnaca delivered a brilliant first-leg performance, making the most of their home ground and playing to their strengths. Three goals after the break were the result of clinical finishing and smart in-game adjustments from coach Imanol Idiakez. The Cypriots have already shown they can survive tough qualifying battles, having eliminated Partizan and Celje in tightly contested ties.
The team arrives in Poland with a comfortable advantage, allowing them to play pragmatically without forcing the issue. AEK will wait for Legia's mistakes and look to strike on the counter, making use of their freshness after a weekend without matches. Winning the Cyprus Cup gave the club a shot at an eighth Europa League qualifying campaign, and now they're close to reaching the playoff round, where they could face Häcken or Brann.
Probable lineups
- Legia: Tobiasz, Wszołek, Kapuadi, Jędrzejczyk, Vinagre, Augustyniak, Urbański, Morishita, Gonçalves, Stojanović, Nsame.
- AEK Larnaca: Alomerović, Ekpolo, Miličević, Roberge, Gnali, Ledes, Miramón, Pons, Ivanović, Angelksi, Chacón.
Match facts and head-to-head
- In the first leg, AEK won 4-1, scoring three times in the second half.
- Legia were unbeaten in seven matches this season before their trip to Cyprus.
- AEK Larnaca are in Europa League qualifying for the eighth time.
Prediction
Even with home support, Legia's chances for a comeback are slim, considering AEK's solid defense and their ability to punish mistakes. I expect the Polish side to go for an early goal, but the Cypriots will respond with counterattacks, likely resulting in a high-scoring draw or a narrow away win. Our bet: "Both teams to score" at 1.73.
