Can the hosts pull off an incredible comeback in the semifinals? Prediction for New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream
New York Liberty
Atlanta Dream
New York Liberty and Atlanta Dream will meet in the early hours of Saturday, October 10, in Game 3 of their playoff semifinal series. The game will be played at Barclays Center in New York, tipping off at 01:30 Central European Time. I am backing a winner in this matchup.
Head-to-head and statistical facts
- Atlanta are on a nine-game winning streak.
- The Dream have won their last four games against the Liberty.
- Atlanta lead the series 2-0.
- The Liberty have not lost the first quarter in nine consecutive games.
New York Liberty
New York Liberty head into Game 3 of the semifinal series in an extremely difficult position. The team lost both games in Atlanta and now trail 0-2 in the best-of-three series. The Liberty also finished the regular season with a 26-18 record as the eighth seed, despite challenging for a higher position until shortly before the finish. In their final two regular-season games, New York lost to Atlanta twice — 95-84 and 83-65.
However, it is too early to write off the Liberty. In the first round, the team pulled off a historic upset by eliminating Minnesota, who finished the regular season with the league's best record at 33-11. New York won both games in the series by a 16-point margin, with Breanna Stewart emerging as the key factor behind their success, averaging 27.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, five assists, two steals and two blocks. That experience could prove decisive now.
The first two games against Atlanta showed that New York must primarily cut down on turnovers and control the tempo better. In Game 1, the Liberty committed 19 turnovers, allowing their opponents to score 32 points off those mistakes, and lost 92-82. In Game 2, New York came much closer to victory but failed to hold on to their lead in overtime, losing 101-98. Stewart delivered a brilliant 35-point performance, but it was not enough.
Now the situation changes with home-court advantage. Game 3 will take place at Barclays Center, where New York must play far more aggressively from the opening minutes. The team has experience in deep playoff runs and a championship mentality — the Liberty reached the Finals in 2023 and won the title in 2024. If Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu get the necessary support from their teammates and the turnover count can be reduced, New York are fully capable of extending the series.
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta, by contrast, are just one win away from their first WNBA Finals appearance since 2013. The Dream finished the regular season with an excellent 30-14 record, tying the franchise record, and won nine of their last 10 games. In the first round, the team comfortably swept Washington 2-0, showcasing roster depth and a strong defense in both games. Over the course of the season, Atlanta allowed just 84.5 points per game on average — the fourth-best mark in the league.
The Dream have looked particularly impressive in this series. In the opener, Atlanta completely changed the course of the game after halftime, winning the third quarter and building the necessary cushion. Jordin Canada scored 25 points and recorded five steals, while DeWanna Bonner added 23 points. Most importantly, their defense forced New York into mistakes and led to 32 points off turnovers.
In Game 2, Atlanta proved they can win even when one of their leaders is forced to miss the contest. Allisha Gray did not take the court due to a left wrist injury, but other players made up for her absence. Angel Reese scored 23 points, Jordin Canada added 23 points and eight assists, while Naz Hillmon hit the decisive shot with 20.8 seconds remaining in overtime. The Dream won 101-98 and are now one step away from the Finals.
Atlanta's biggest advantage is their balance. During the regular season, the team averaged 91.3 points per game compared with New York's 89.4, while allowing 84.5 points against 86.4 for their opponents. The Dream also led the league in points off turnovers, averaging 18.1 per game. That strength has been especially evident in the opening games of the series.
What to bet on?
After two defeats, New York will be under enormous psychological pressure, but home-court advantage and the experience of Stewart, Ionescu and the team's other leaders should help the Liberty deliver a completely different performance. Atlanta currently look more cohesive and confident, but repeating their two previous wins will be difficult. We expect a hard-fought game in which New York will manage to reduce their deficit in the series.
