Can Oklahoma City Extend Its Home Dominance Over Denver? Prediction | October 23, 2026
Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City host Denver on October 23 after opening their season with a 116–104 victory over San Antonio. The Nuggets enter the matchup following a disappointing first-round playoff exit last season but have strengthened their roster during the offseason. Oklahoma City will look to build on its winning start and extend its impressive home record against Denver.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City finished the 2025/26 regular season with a 64–18 record, claiming first place in the Western Conference. Mark Daigneault's team swept Phoenix and the Los Angeles Lakers in the first two playoff rounds before losing 3–4 to San Antonio in the Western Conference Finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points per game and won his second consecutive MVP award, while the Thunder recorded the NBA's best defensive rating at 107.7.
The Thunder lost several rotation players during the offseason, including Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe. However, they retained their core of Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams while adding Jared McCain and rookie center Adama Mara. Oklahoma City finished its preseason with one win and four losses, although several games featured limited minutes for the regular starters.
The Thunder began the new campaign with a 116–104 win over San Antonio. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 32 points, six rebounds and four assists, while McCain scored 20 points and made six of his eight three-point attempts. Holmgren contributed 14 points, seven rebounds and four blocks. Oklahoma City established a 21-point halftime lead and held on despite a third-quarter response from the Spurs.
Denver Nuggets
Denver finished third in the Western Conference last season with a 54–28 record. The Nuggets ranked first in the NBA in offensive rating at 122.6 and averaged 122.1 points per game, but their postseason campaign ended in the first round with a 2–4 series defeat against Minnesota. Nikola Jokic averaged 25.8 points, 13.2 rebounds and 9.5 assists in that series, but Denver lacked sufficient support to advance.
The Nuggets made several changes to their roster, adding DeMar DeRozan, Marvin Bagley III and Tyus Jones while also bringing back Spencer Jones. These additions provide Denver with more experience and additional options in the rotation as it looks to improve on last season's playoff disappointment.
Denver finished the preseason with three wins and two losses, closing its preparation with a 121–106 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers. Jamal Murray scored 21 points in that game, while Jokic recorded 17 points, six rebounds and eight assists. The Nuggets demonstrated their offensive potential during preparation, but their ability to maintain that production against Oklahoma City's defense will be an important factor in this matchup.
Head-to-head
Oklahoma City have won six consecutive home games against Denver. The Thunder have also won five of the last seven overall meetings between the teams. However, Denver won their two most recent encounters, meaning Oklahoma City will be looking to reverse that recent trend.
Prediction
Oklahoma City will look to deliver another strong performance in front of their home fans, building on their opening-night victory and impressive record against Denver. Gilgeous-Alexander began the season in excellent form with 32 points against San Antonio, while McCain's outside shooting gives the Thunder another scoring threat. Their defensive performance last season also provides a solid foundation against a Denver team that relies heavily on its offensive production. The Nuggets have added experienced players and finished their preseason with three wins, but their revamped roster must now demonstrate its effectiveness against one of the Western Conference's strongest teams. Jokic and Murray give Denver the ability to keep the game competitive, although Oklahoma City's six consecutive home wins against the Nuggets offer a compelling reason to favor the hosts. Recommended Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 Asian Handicap
