Can Miami End Its Home Losing Streak Against Minnesota? | Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction | October 22, 2026
The Miami Heat host the Minnesota Timberwolves on October 22 as both teams begin the new NBA regular season. Miami finished last season 10th in the Eastern Conference and was eliminated in the play-in tournament, while Minnesota reached the Western Conference semifinals. Both teams have made major roster changes and ended their preseason campaigns with defeats.
Miami Heat
Miami finished last season 10th in the Eastern Conference before losing to the Charlotte Hornets 127–126 in the play-in tournament. The Heat have since reshaped their roster, most notably acquiring Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis from Milwaukee in a trade that sent Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kel’el Ware to the Bucks. Miami also signed Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr., adding more experience and scoring options.
The Heat showed some promise during preseason, beating Toronto and New Orleans before recording a high-scoring 144–128 win over Brooklyn. However, they subsequently lost to Minnesota and suffered a 136–115 defeat against Orlando in their final game.
Antetokounmpo has already demonstrated his potential impact, recording 20 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists in preseason game against Nets. Thompson added 12 points in the same game. Their combination of interior presence and perimeter shooting could give Miami a different offensive dimension this season.
However, the Heat face a difficult historical matchup. They have lost four consecutive home games against Minnesota and won just once in their last seven meetings overall.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota finished sixth in the Western Conference last season and advanced directly to the playoffs. The Timberwolves defeated Denver 4–2 in the first round but then lost to the San Antonio Spurs by the same series score in the conference semifinals.
Their offseason brought major changes of their own. Minnesota acquired LaMelo Ball and Josh Green in a trade involving Julius Randle, while Naz Reid also departed as part of the wider series of transactions. The Timberwolves subsequently added Jonathan Kuminga, Ayo Dosunmu and Trey Lyles, giving the team a substantially different mix of players around Anthony Edwards.
Minnesota started its preseason positively, winning three of its first four games against Milwaukee, Miami and New York. However, the team struggled defensively in its final two outings, losing 128–106 to Detroit and 133–116 to Chicago.
Edwards scored 20 points against Detroit, while Kuminga contributed 16 points, four rebounds and three assists. Isaiah Evans led Minnesota with 21 points against Chicago.
The preseason finish raises questions about Minnesota's defensive consistency, particularly as the new-look roster adjusts to playing together. Nevertheless, the Timberwolves have the advantage of recent success against Miami and will look to carry that momentum into the regular season.
Key Trends
- Minnesota beat Miami 125–124 in their preseason meeting.
- Minnesota lost its last two preseason games.
- Miami have lost their last four home games against Minnesota.
- Minnesota have won six of their last seven head-to-head games.
Prediction
Both teams enter the new season with significantly reshaped rosters, making their opening performance particularly interesting. Neither team finished preseason strongly. Miami lost two of its last three games, while Minnesota suffered consecutive defeats. The Heat, however, will have home-court advantage and an opportunity to begin a new era with a win. Minnesota's four-game winning streak in visits to Miami remains a significant obstacle for the Heat. However, with Antetokounmpo offering a new focal point and Thompson adding shooting, Miami have the potential to challenge the Warriors' recent dominance on the Heat's home court. The Heat have a realistic chance of starting the season with a victory. Recommended Bet: Miami Heat to Win.
