Burnley vs Cardiff City prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 23 September 2025
On September 23, 2025, as part of the English Football League Cup round of 32, Burnley and Cardiff City will go head-to-head. Kick-off is scheduled for 20:45 Central European Time. Let's take a closer look at the odds and pick a winner for this clash.
Burnley
Burnley, now a Premier League side after an impressive previous campaign—finishing second in the Championship with 100 points and earning promotion—has faced a challenging start to their top-flight return. In their opening five matches, Burnley managed just one win (2-0 over Sunderland), with the remaining games bringing three defeats and a draw. Their most recent home outing saw them draw 1-1 with Nottingham Forest, extending their winless run to three games.
In the previous round of the EFL Cup, Burnley edged out Derby County 2-1 at home. On their own turf against Cardiff, Burnley have been especially dominant: in their last three head-to-head meetings at home, they've secured victories, scoring ten goals and conceding none.
Cardiff City
Cardiff City endured a disastrous campaign last season, finishing bottom of the Championship and suffering relegation to League One, where they now look far more assured. Across their first eight matches of the new season, Cardiff have lost just once—in their most recent home fixture, falling 1-3 to Bradford. Prior to that, they boasted an impressive ten-game unbeaten run across all competitions. Currently, Cardiff sit fourth in the table with 17 points, just three behind leaders Bradford and with a game in hand.
Cardiff have also shown consistency in the EFL Cup: they first defeated League Two side Swindon 2-1 at home, then thrashed Cheltenham 3-0 in their next home encounter.
However, head-to-head meetings against Burnley have been a real struggle for Cardiff: they've failed to beat this opponent in each of their last nine encounters—five defeats and four draws.
Probable lineups
- Burnley: Dubravka, Hartman, Ekdal, Esteve, Walker, Cullen, Florentino, Laurent, Anthony, Chawna, Foster.
- Cardiff City: Trott, Krakio, Fish, Osho, Began, Wintle, Turnbull, Ashford, Colwill, Willock, Salesh.
Key facts and head-to-head
- Burnley have failed to win 7 of their last 9 matches.
- Both teams have scored in 3 of Burnley’s last 4 games.
- Cardiff have won 3 of their last 4 away matches.
- Cardiff are unbeaten in 16 of their last 17 matches.
- Burnley have won 5 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings.
- Burnley have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head home games.
- 4 of the last 6 head-to-head encounters have seen over 2.5 goals.
Burnley vs Cardiff City match prediction
Burnley are still struggling to find their feet in the Premier League this season and head into this match on a three-game winless streak. The team is clearly eager to break this negative run and regain self-belief. Cardiff City, meanwhile, have made a strong start in League One, showing consistency and climbing high in the table. However, recent head-to-head stats are clearly in Burnley’s favour: at home, they regularly get the better of Cardiff. All signs point to Burnley claiming a confident victory in front of their fans and bouncing back from recent setbacks. My pick for this match: Burnley to win, odds 1.58.
