Athletic Bilbao vs Alavés prediction, H2H and probable lineups - 11 May 2025
The Matchday 35 showdown of the Spanish championship between Athletic and Alavés will take place on Sunday at San Mamés. I'm backing a bet on goals in this encounter, offering solid winning chances.
Match preview
Athletic are showcasing defensive solidity as the season draws to a close. In their last two La Liga outings, Ernesto Valverde’s squad have not conceded a single goal: first, they edged Las Palmas 1-0 at home, then battled to a goalless draw away to Real Sociedad. Remarkably, in their previous eight league fixtures, the only defeat came against Real Madrid (0-1).
These strong results have cemented Athletic’s hold on fourth place in the standings. They sit four points clear of sixth-placed Real Betis. The Basques also boast the best defense in La Liga, having conceded just 26 goals all season. It’s worth noting that they crashed out of the Europa League, losing both legs to Manchester United with an aggregate score of 1-7.
Eduardo Coudet’s side have shown signs of improvement in recent matches. In their last two La Liga games, they kept clean sheets and avoided defeat. First, they drew 1-1 away at Sevilla, then claimed a home win over Real Sociedad (1-0), and in their latest outing, they shared the spoils with Atlético (0-0).
The Basques occupy 17th spot in the table, just three points above the relegation zone. Notably, they have avoided defeat in seven of their last nine league matches (three wins and four draws), fueling hope they can steer clear of the drop.
Probable lineups
- Athletic Bilbao: Unai Simón – Aitor Paredes, Dani Vivian, Andoni Gorosabel, Lekue – Beñat Prados, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Unai Gómez – Gorka Guruzeta, Iñaki Williams, Álex Berenguer
- Alavés: Antonio Sivera – Facundo Garcés, Manu Sánchez, Nahuel Tenaglia, Santiago Mourino – Antonio Blanco, Jon Guridi, Ander Guevara, Carles Aleñá – Kike García, Carlos Vicente
Match facts and head-to-head
- In the reverse fixture, Alavés held Athletic to a 1-1 draw at home
- Before that, Athletic had beaten their rivals 2-0 in three consecutive matches
- The under 2.5 goals bet has landed in the last five meetings between these sides
Prediction
The bookmakers side with Athletic in this clash, offering odds of around 1.98 for a win by the "Lions." However, Athletic are likely to come into this match fatigued, making under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.60 the optimal play here.
