Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 20 September 2025
On September 20, 2025, at the Mestalla Stadium, the fifth round of the Spanish La Liga will see Valencia host Athletic Bilbao. Kick-off is scheduled for 21:00 Central European Time. Let's take a look at a bet focused on the teams' attacking output in this clash.
Valencia
Valencia finished last La Liga season in twelfth place, a step back compared to the previous campaign, when they ended up ninth. The gap to European qualification was six points, but it was the same distance back to the relegation zone.
The start of the new season has been anything but smooth for Valencia. In the opener, they drew with Real Sociedad, then suffered an away defeat to Osasuna. They managed to bounce back with a convincing 3-0 home win over Getafe, but in their latest match against Barcelona, Valencia were thrashed 0-6. As a result, they now sit only 15th in the standings, with four points and a goal difference of 4-8.
When it comes to home fixtures against Athletic Bilbao, Valencia have managed just one win from the last four encounters, while Athletic have come out on top three times. The last two head-to-heads at Mestalla were cagey affairs, both finishing under 2.5 goals.
Athletic Bilbao
Athletic Bilbao had a phenomenal season last year, finishing fourth in La Liga and earning a Champions League berth for the first time since 2014/15. The team showed remarkable consistency, particularly in defense — conceding just 29 goals, ten fewer than champions Barcelona.
Unlike Valencia, Athletic started the season with real momentum. They opened with three straight wins over Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano, and Betis. However, things have taken a turn since then. At home, they lost 0-1 to Alavés and followed up with a 0-2 defeat against Arsenal at San Mamés in their Champions League opener midweek. That means Athletic are now on a two-match run without a win or even a goal. In La Liga, they still hold fourth place with nine points.
In head-to-head meetings with Valencia, the Basques have looked much more confident: just one defeat in the last eight, with five wins and two draws. Notably, five of those eight matches ended with under 2.5 total goals.
Probable lineups
- Valencia: Agirrezabala, Gayà, Copete, Tárrega, Foulquier, López, Santamaría, Guerra, Rioja, Danjuma, Duro.
- Athletic Bilbao: Simón, Areso, Vivian, Paredes, Berchiche, Jaureguizar, Ruiz de Galarreta, Williams I., Navarro, Sancet, Sannadi.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Valencia have failed to win 10 of their last 12 matches
- Athletic Bilbao have lost 3 of their last 4 matches
- Athletic Bilbao have lost 6 of their last 7 away matches
- Athletic Bilbao are unbeaten in 7 of their last 8 head-to-heads
- Athletic Bilbao have won 3 of their last 4 away clashes against Valencia
- Three of the last four meetings ended with under 2.5 goals
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao prediction
Both teams come into this match far from their best. Valencia have struggled for consistency, celebrating just one victory and suffering two defeats, including a heavy loss to Barcelona. Athletic, in contrast, started brightly but have since stumbled, failing to score in their last two outings. In recent head-to-heads, Athletic have held the upper hand, but the games have often been cautious and low-scoring. Given the current form of both sides and the nature of their meetings, a tight, defensive contest is likely. My bet for this match is under 2.5 total goals at odds of 1.56.
