St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund H2H, prediction and probable lineups — August 23, 2025
On August 23, 2025, Hamburg will host the opening round of the German Bundesliga as St. Pauli welcomes Borussia Dortmund. Read on for an in-depth look at both teams and a match prediction.
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Match preview
After their Bundesliga return, St. Pauli managed to hold their own in the top flight: collecting 32 points, the team finished 14th, just three points clear of the relegation playoff. The mission for the new campaign is pragmatic—repeat last season’s success and secure their status. In the first official match of the new season, St. Pauli edged Eintracht Norderstedt in the German Cup via penalties. Despite creating a host of chances in regular time, they failed to find the net.
St. Pauli’s style is built on relentless work rate, compact defending, and energetic wing play. They favor quick transitions, often employing long balls and playing as underdogs. Their main weapon is the Millerntor atmosphere, with the home crowd generating a unique intensity. However, a key challenge remains the limited individual quality: against the league’s elite, St. Pauli often struggles with decision-making speed and technical prowess.
Dortmund enters the season with familiar ambitions: a renewed push for the title. In their first outing, the "Black and Yellows" narrowly beat RW Essen away in the cup—a tense affair against a 3. Liga side that was only decided in the 79th minute when Guirassy found the winner, securing a hard-fought victory for Dortmund.
Under the guidance of Niko Kovac’s coaching staff, the team continues to develop an aggressive approach: high pressing, dynamic wing runs, and an emphasis on intensity. Borussia excels at breaking down defenses with sharp one-touch combinations and remains dangerous from set pieces. The biggest challenge for Dortmund is consistency—last season, they dropped valuable points on the road, especially against lower-ranked opponents.
Probable lineups
St. Pauli: Vasilj, Wahl, Smith, Nemeth, Saliakas, Sands, Fujita, Sinani, Oppie, Laj, Hountondji
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Ryerson, Anton, Bensebaini, Couto, Gross, Sabitzer, Svensson, Bellingham, Guirassy, Adeyemi
Match facts and head-to-head
- In the last five head-to-head encounters, Borussia has won four times, St. Pauli once
- In their previous 13 official matches, Borussia has lost just once: two draws and ten wins
- In their last five official matches, the home side has only scored in one
Prediction
This clash promises to be compelling for Dortmund fans: with a partially refreshed squad and a coach who has had more time with the team, the group now better understands Kovac’s demands. Despite a tough start in the cup, I give the edge to Dortmund. My prediction: Borussia to win at 1.71 odds.
