Santos vs Vitoria prediction, H2H and probable lineups – October 21, 2025
On October 21, 2025, the 29th round of the Brazilian Serie A will see Santos host Vitoria on their home turf. Kick-off is scheduled for 02:30 Central European Time. Let’s take a closer look at the teams’ attacking potential for this matchup.
Santos
Santos, fresh off their return to the top flight after winning Serie B, are still struggling to adapt to the elite level. After 27 rounds, the team sits 16th in the table, just three points above the relegation zone, though they do have a game in hand that could improve their position. Santos’ form has been shaky: in their last nine matches, they have only two wins, four draws, and three defeats. However, they managed to break a three-game winless streak in the previous round by defeating Corinthians 3-1.
The team looks much more confident at home: in their last six home fixtures, they have three wins, two draws, and just one loss. In fact, Santos are unbeaten at home in their last four matches.
With no other tournaments to distract them, the squad is fully focused on the league, with their main goal being to secure their spot in Serie A. Santos have a clear edge in home matches against Vitoria: four wins and one draw in their last five meetings. Moreover, the last four encounters between these sides at Santos’ ground have all been high-scoring affairs, with over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net.
Vitoria
Vitoria are enduring a disastrous season. After finishing 11th last year and earning a spot in the Copa Sudamericana, the club now finds itself fighting for survival. After 28 matches, Vitoria sit 17th, trailing Santos—their direct rival—by three points. This head-to-head clash carries huge significance: a win would see them draw level on points and keep their hopes of staying in Serie A alive.
Their recent form is far from inspiring: Vitoria have lost four and won just two of their last six matches. Both victories came at home, against Ceara (1-0) and Bahia (2-1). Their Copa Sudamericana campaign also ended in disappointment, as they failed to progress from the group stage.
Vitoria have been especially poor away from home. Their last road win dates back to mid-May, when they beat Uruguay's Cerro Largo 1-0 in the Copa Sudamericana. Since then, they’ve played 11 away matches in all competitions without a single victory—just three draws and eight defeats. Historically, they’ve also struggled against Santos: their last win over this opponent came all the way back in 2013.
Probable lineups
- Santos: Gabriel Brazao, Maike, Duarte, Luan Peres, Escobar, Vitor Hugo, Ze Rafael, Barreal, Rolheiser, Dias, Guilherme.
- Vitoria: Arcanjo, Edu, Ze Marcos, Alter, Ramon, Cantalapiedra, Lopez, Barallas, Caceres, Lopez Renzo, Osvaldo.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Santos have failed to win 7 of their last 9 matches.
- Three of Santos’ last four matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in three of Santos’ last four games.
- Three of Vitoria’s last four matches have ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams have scored in three of Vitoria’s last four games.
- Vitoria have lost their last five away matches.
- Santos have won 8 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings.
- Santos have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-heads at home.
- Santos have scored first in 8 of the last 9 meetings.
Santos vs Vitoria prediction
Both teams are battling at the bottom of the table, fighting for survival. A win for Santos would give them a crucial buffer over Vitoria and a more comfortable gap from the relegation zone, especially with a game in hand. Vitoria are in a tough spot, winless on the road for a long stretch and with a dismal away record. The head-to-head stats also favor Santos. The hosts will look to capitalize on home advantage and build on their momentum, while Vitoria will be desperate to snatch any points they can. All factors point to an open and lively game with goals from both sides. My pick for this match is over 2 goals at odds of 1.58.
