Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction, H2H and probable lineups - 10 January 2026
One of the third-round matches of the FA Cup will take place on Saturday at St James' Park in Newcastle, where the local side Newcastle United will host Bournemouth. I’m offering a prediction for the outcome of this clash, taking into account the teams’ current form and their head-to-head history.
Match preview
Newcastle approach this fixture in high spirits, riding a three-match winning streak and showing real character in their recent battle with Leeds. Barnes’ stoppage-time winner was a testament to Howe’s side’s resilience. Despite ongoing squad issues, the Magpies continue to show their mettle, especially at home where they are unbeaten in 12 straight matches.
Defensive headaches persist for the Magpies - losing Fabian Schär and being without six first-team players narrows Howe’s options for rotation. However, the cohesion of the starting eleven and the experience of key players allow Howe to manage resources wisely. The home stats provide extra confidence: at St James’ Park, visiting teams find it extremely tough to take points.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, only recently snapped an 11-game winless run, snatching a dramatic away victory at Tottenham. Iraola’s side look dangerous going forward but remain frail at the back, conceding in each of their last six games. Attacking options are limited too, with Semenyo and Kluivert among those sidelined, reducing their tactical flexibility.
Traditionally, however, the Cherries have been a tricky opponent for Newcastle - they haven’t lost in the last six head-to-head encounters. Still, given their current issues and the challenge of playing away, getting a result here will be tougher than in previous meetings. Bournemouth’s attack can create chances, but their finishing and the congested schedule could have a big say in the final outcome.
Probable lineups
- Newcastle: Pope, Botman, Thiaw, Hall, Trippier, Ramsey, Joelinton, Guimarães, Gordon, Murphy, Wissa
- Bournemouth: Petrovic, Hill, Diakité, Smith, Truffert, Scott, Cook, Tavernier, Krupi, Brooks, Evanilson
Match facts and head-to-head
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last six matches against Newcastle.
- Newcastle have scored no more than one goal in five of their last six meetings with Bournemouth.
- Only twice in the last seven head-to-heads have the teams produced over 2.5 total goals.
Prediction
Both sides possess attacking threat but have defensive vulnerabilities, making goals at both ends likely. However, Newcastle’s confident form, home advantage, and squad depth - crucial during the winter fixture congestion—tip the scales in their favor. Considering their motivation in the cup, recent winning run, and Bournemouth’s shaky defense, the hosts look like clear favorites to progress to the next round.
