Manchester United - Athletic Bilbao prediction, H2H and probable lineups - May 8, 2025
The second leg of the Europa League semi-final takes place this Thursday at the legendary Old Trafford, where Manchester United will host Athletic Bilbao. The first match produced quite a sensation, as few expected the Red Devils to thrash the Basques 3-0 on their own turf. We’re backing a bet on goals in this clash, with strong odds for a winning return.
Match preview
Manchester United kicked off their Europa League semi-final in style, dismantling their Spanish opponents 3-0 away from home. That result not only put them on the brink of the final but also extended their impressive unbeaten run in the competition: 13 matches without defeat in regular time, with seven wins and six draws. Remarkably, United remain the only team in this season’s European campaign yet to taste defeat.
Delving into United’s home stats in the Europa League, the numbers are truly impressive: just one loss in 30 matches at Old Trafford (21 wins and 8 draws in regular time). Add to that their attacking firepower at the Theatre of Dreams — on nine of their last ten European nights at home, the English side have netted at least twice. It’s worth recalling that United’s domestic campaign has been underwhelming, and winning the Europa League — and with it, a Champions League spot — remains their shot at redemption.
Ernesto Valverde’s side had a disastrous first half in their home leg against the English, conceding three unanswered goals before the break and finishing the match with ten men. Now, to stage a comeback and reach the final, the Lions need to win by at least four goals. A three-goal victory would send the tie to extra time.
Still, Athletic’s matches in the Europa League have been full of goal-fests: in seven of their last ten, there have been at least three goals scored. Overall, the Basques have held their own — unbeaten in 10 of their last 13 matches in the competition, with eight wins and two draws. But the away factor is working against them: they’re winless in their last three European away games (one draw, two defeats).
Probable lineups
- Manchester United: André Onana – Harry Maguire, Leny Yoro, Noussair Mazraoui, Victor Lindelöf, Patrick Dorgu – Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes, Manuel Ugarte – Alejandro Garnacho, Rasmus Højlund
- Athletic Bilbao: Julen Agirrezabala – Óscar De Marcos, Yuri Berchiche, Yeray Álvarez, Dani Vivian – Mikel Jaureguizar, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Iñaki Williams, Álex Berenguer, Nico Williams – Maroan Sannadi
Match facts and head-to-head
- The teams have met three times in the Europa League and, prior to the Bilbao thrashing, the Lions had beaten United twice
- The "Over 2.5 goals" bet has landed in three of the last four matches between these sides
- The "Both teams to score" market has come through in three of the past four encounters
Prediction
The bookmakers are backing United, offering odds of 2.07 on a home win. We don’t see any real chance of the tie being reignited here. No matter how poor the Red Devils have been in the Premier League, they won’t lose to Athletic by a big margin at Old Trafford. And the Spaniards haven’t exactly excelled on the road in Europe. Our bet for this match: Both teams to score, at odds of 1.70.
