Italy vs Spain prediction and H2H — September 2, 2025
Italy
Spain
In the fourth round of the EuroBasket group stage, Italy and Spain will square off. The clash is set for Limassol on Tuesday, September 2, with tip-off scheduled for 20:30 Central European Time. I'm backing a bet on the game's total points.
Match preview
Italy enters EuroBasket with a competitive roster led by Simone Fontecchio. The Detroit Pistons forward has been showing steady progress in the NBA, and his scoring output often proves decisive for the Azzurri. Veteran Nicolo Melli brings invaluable experience and composure in clutch moments.
The Italians' tactical blueprint revolves around swift ball movement and aggressive three-point shooting. The squad pushes the tempo, leaning on the quickness and energy of its backcourt.
However, Italy does have some notable vulnerabilities. Most concerning is a lack of depth among the big men, which could spell trouble on the glass against more physically imposing teams. In addition, streaky outside shooting sometimes results in prolonged scoring droughts.
Italy opened the tournament with a loss to Greece, unable to contain Giannis. They bounced back with wins over Georgia and Bosnia, and their playoff chances are now rated as high.
Spain remains one of the tournament's main contenders, despite recent roster changes. The Hernangomez brothers are still key figures, while the new generation is stepping up — most notably, Memphis Grizzlies center Santi Aldama.
The Red Fury's greatest strength continues to be their organization. Spain expertly controls the pace and imposes their preferred rhythm, with squad depth as their major advantage.
Even with EuroBasket's grueling schedule, the coaching staff can rotate without sacrificing quality. After a shocking loss to Georgia, Spain had no trouble dispatching Bosnia and Cyprus.
Match facts
- Italy has won two of their last five games.
- Spain has won only two of their last seven matches.
- Italy averages 80 points per game, while Spain averages 83 points per game.
Players to watch
Keep an eye on Spain's center, who plays for Barcelona. We're talking about the elder Hernangomez brother, Guillermo. He shone in games against Bosnia and Cyprus and is averaging over 14 points per game in the tournament.
H2H
- Italy has won the last two head-to-head meetings against Spain.
- Spain hasn't beaten Italy in regulation since 2019.
Prediction
Both teams have enough offensive firepower to deliver a high-scoring contest. Italy will focus on the perimeter, while Spain will attack through their bigs and look for midrange opportunities. Defensive schemes often struggle with EuroBasket's fast pace. My pick: total over 151.5 points.
