Potter faces Tunisian drought: prediction for Sweden vs Tunisia - 15.06.2026
On Monday, one of the first round matches of the 2026 World Cup group stage will see Sweden take on Tunisia. This is a high-stakes encounter for both teams: a defeat will instantly complicate the battle even for third place, while a victory will give the winner a crucial confidence boost and a sense that there’s more to play for in this group.
Sweden: autumn crisis survived, but leading the play still raises questions
Sweden stumbled badly in the autumn stretch of qualifying, after which Graham Potter was appointed head coach. The Englishman, however, couldn’t spark a quick turnaround. The play-offs became Sweden’s salvation: they confidently defeated Ukraine 3-1, then edged Poland 3-2, avenging a painful loss from the 2022 World Cup qualifiers.
June friendlies brought more doubts: Sweden lost 1-3 to Norway and let a win slip away against Greece in a 2-2 draw. The main concern ahead of Tunisia is that Potter’s team looks better when playing on the counter, but here they’ll likely have to break down a compact defense themselves.
Tunisia: new coach, youthful squad, and an attack starved of oxygen
Tunisia breezed through World Cup qualifying: nine wins in ten matches, not a single loss, and an impressive 22:0 goal differential. But after the Africa Cup of Nations, the coaching staff was overhauled - Sabri Lamouchi took charge and had time for just four friendlies before the World Cup.
The early signs under Lamouchi have been alarming: a 1-0 win over Haiti, a goalless draw with Canada, then a defeat to Austria and a 0-5 thrashing by Belgium—their heaviest loss in decades. The attack is especially concerning: in four matches under the new coach, Tunisia netted only once, and their scoring drought has stretched beyond 350 minutes.
Probable lineups
- Sweden: Nordfeldt, Lindelöf, Hien, Lagerbielke, Gudmundsson, Karlström, Ayari, Bernhardsson, Nygren, Isak, Gyökeres.
- Tunisia: Chammakh, Valery, Talbi, Rekik, Abdi, Khedira, Skhiri, Slimane, Mejbri, Achouri, Chaouat.
Match facts and head-to-head history
- Sweden won two crucial play-off matches - against Ukraine (3-1) and Poland (3-2) - but then failed to beat Norway and Greece in friendlies.
- Tunisia went unbeaten and didn’t concede in qualifying, but under Sabri Lamouchi have scored just one goal in four matches.
- No more than two goals were scored in each of the last four head-to-head meetings between Sweden and Tunisia.
- Sweden failed to score more than one goal in regulation time in 9 of their last 12 World Cup qualifiers.
- Both teams have scored in six of Sweden’s last matches.
Potter needs a calm start: prediction for Sweden vs Tunisia
Sweden appear to have the higher individual ceiling, mainly thanks to the attacking duo of Isak and Gyökeres. But don’t expect an open game: Tunisia will be as cautious as possible, and Sweden aren’t always comfortable dominating possession and breaking down a deep block. The first goal could be decisive. Given Tunisia’s struggles creating chances and their poor finishing under the new coach, Sweden have a strong chance to keep things tight and edge their opponents through moments of quality in the final third.
