Israel vs Italy prediction, H2H and probable line-ups - September 8, 2025
One of the key fixtures of Matchday 6 in the UEFA World Cup 2026 qualifiers will unfold on Monday at the Nagyerdei Stadium in Debrecen (Hungary), where Israel will face off against Italy. I’m offering a bet on the outcome of this clash with solid chances for success.
Match preview
Israel comes into the game as one of the favorites for second place in the group. Ran Ben Shimon’s squad confidently dismantled Moldova (4-0) and continues to impress with its attacking prowess: their scoring streak now stands at eight consecutive matches. Traditionally, Israel is strong at home — over their last six home qualifiers, they’ve suffered just one defeat and consistently thrill their fans with high-scoring performances. However, this time Israel will have to play on neutral ground.
The main challenge for the hosts is to test their attack against a top-tier defense. Despite their underdog status, Israel has shown they can find the net even against stronger sides, with Manor Solomon and Tai Baribo creating plenty of headaches for opposing defenders. For Ben Shimon, this is a chance to prove his team is ready to fight for direct qualification, not just a playoff spot.
Italy, under Gennaro Gattuso, is starting a new cycle with optimism. Two straight clean-sheet victories (including a 5-0 rout of Estonia) have helped the team move past their disappointing World Cup qualifying run. The Azzurri are renowned for their rock-solid defense: they’ve kept clean sheets in 9 of their last 13 qualifiers, making them one of the most organized sides in Europe.
However, away matches remain a concern. Italy rarely scores more than once on the road, and wins are often hard-fought. The absence of Gianluca Scamacca limits their attacking options, placing extra responsibility on the forward duo of Retegui and Kean, with support from midfielders Barella, Tonali, Politano, and Zaccagni. In Debrecen, the Italians will need to show grit to overcome a highly motivated Israeli side.
Probable line-ups
- Israel: Peretz; Lemkin, Revivo, Nachmias, Dasa; D. Peretz, Gloukh, E. Peretz, Biton; Baribo, Solomon
- Italy: Donnarumma; Bastoni, Calafiori, Di Lorenzo, Dimarco; Barella, Politano, Tonali, Zaccagni; Kean, Retegui
Match facts and head-to-head
- Israel has scored at least twice in 7 of their last 8 World Cup qualifiers.
- Italy is unbeaten in 11 of their last 13 World Cup qualifying matches.
- In their previous head-to-head (Nations League 2024), Italy won 2-1 in Israel.
Prediction
Israel is in great form and consistently finds the net, especially when playing at home. Italy remains defensively solid, but their away games rarely deliver fireworks. The optimal bet looks to be "Israel with a +1.5 handicap" at 1.74, as the hosts are capable of putting up a fight even against the Azzurri.
